Cincinnati Reds 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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After a 15-year playoff drought, the Reds returned to the postseason in 2010. With a loaded staff of young pitchers, they look poised to repeat in 2011.

Cincinnati Reds 2010 MLB Record: 91-71
Cincinnati Reds 2010 MLB Home Record: 49-32
Cincinnati Reds 2010 MLB Away Record: 42-39

Cincinnati Reds 2011 Betting

Cincinnati Reds Odds to Win the National League: +1200
Cincinnati Reds Odds to Win the World Series: +2500

Cincinnati Reds 2011 Preview & Prediction

Mark Twain once poked fun at Cincinnati for its inability to change with the times. In the case of the 2011 Reds, the lack of change is being viewed favorably in the Queen City. Manager Dusty Baker and almost every key player who helped the Reds end a 15-year postseason drought in 2010 are back this season. That continuity is what the Reds were sorely lacking ever since the calendar flipped to the 21st century. Baker signed a two-year contract extension, and the front office believes the Reds now have the right mix of veteran leaders and promising young players to consistently win the National League Central Division. The next logical step would be to… well, win one playoff game, after the Reds were swept by Philadelphia in the division series. Whether the Reds are going to take steps beyond that depends on the continued development of a talented pitching staff. Although the starting rotation was steady in 2010, Cincinnati didn’t have a dominant ace to compete with the likes of Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum in the NL. The Reds figure they have a dominant ace-in-waiting in $30 million Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman, whose 105 mph fastball debuted in the majors in late August. However, Chapman still needs to work on his control, and actually could end up as Cincinnati’s closer before he becomes its ace. After leading the NL in every major statistical category, the Reds’ lineup crashed and burned in the postseason. But with reigning MVP Joey Votto and every position player back Cincinnati is expecting an offensive encore. The lineup, however, isn’t without some big questions. The Reds don’t have a natural leadoff hitter, and Baker isn’t holding his breath that Drew Stubbs will miraculously learn how to bunt and become patient at the plate.

Cincinnati Reds Manager: Dusty Baker – Fourth year (18th overall) Record: 1,405-1,284

Baker has been a successful manager with three different clubs, posting a winning record in 10 of 17 seasons. But he’s gUided only one team to the World Series.

Cincinnati Reds 2011 Projected Batting Order: 2B Brandon Phillips (R), CF – Drew Stubbs (R), 1B Joey Votto (L), 3B Scott Rolen (R), RF Jay Bruce (L), LF Jonny Gomes (R), C Ramon Hernandez (R), SS Paul Janish (R).

Cincinnati Reds 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Edinson Volquez, RH Bronson Arroyo, RH Johnny Cueto, RH Homer Bailey, LH Travis Wood.

Cincinnati Reds 2011 Projected Closer: RH Francisco Cordero

2011 Cincinnati Reds Offense:

OF Drew Stubbs is a terror on the basepaths, and he’s got some pop. He spent the offseason working on patience. If it improves, he goes from above-average to must-have. 2B Brandon Philips is set near the top ofthe order, meaning he’ll continue to score runs but sacrifice some homers to reach base. How long will we toot our own horns about our hype of 1B Joey Votto? As long as we can-we beat the bandwagon to the reigning NL MVP by a mile. 3B Scott Rolen will give you good stats for 120 games, and zero for the 42 he spends nursing injuries. OF Jay Bruce has arrived. If healthy, he’s an All-Star. OF Jonny Gomes’ grip on left field is loose; he followed a great first half with an ugly tumble into reality. Young Chris Heisey is an intriguing alternative. Cramon Hernandez returns to team with Ryan Hanigan. They were surprisingly productive together last year. SS Paul Janish plays great D, and so-so offense. He’s still better than departed Orlando Cabrera.

2011 Cincinnati Reds Rotation:

He’s no ace, but boy does Bronson Arroyo get alot of his lanky frame, rubber arm, and pseudo-mullet. Since joining the Reds in 2006, he’s given the team 169 starts and nearly 1,100 innings. He’s only good for 120 strikeouts, but the Reds-and fantasy owners-are happy to take the wins. Johnny Cueto took abig step forward (when he wasn’t unceremoniously stepping into Jason LaRue’s face with his cleat). He can be great for WHIP and ERA, but mental fortitude isn’t his strength -one bad third of an inning can undo him in an instant. Edinson Volquez is a conundrum: his last full season in 2008 was largely brilliant, and you could chalk up much of his struggles in the next two years to his unpleasant dance with Tommy John. Travis Wood earned asure spot in the rotation with his play down the stretch. But his workload was a concern. Homer Bailey’s superior stuff gives him the edge over Mike Leake in the battle for spot NO.5 in Cincy’s deepest rotation ever.

2011 Cincinnati Reds Bullpen:

Aroldis Chapman is tantalizingly hovering on the border between uber-reliever and starter. We think he’s better suited to the former, but his ceiling is high regardless of how the Reds end up using him. Francisco Cordero almost caused riots in the Queen City last year with his death-defying, bases-loaded saves. He should be better this year after an uncharacteristically tough battle with control problems. But past 2011, don’t expect to see him in red. Nick Masset fought back from early season hiccups. His pitch arsenal is fierce, and he’s one of the NL’s better set-up men.

2011 Cincinnati Reds Middle Infield:

The Reds opted not to re-sign Orlando Cabrera in favor of slick-fielding/light-hitting Paul Janish, though the team did sign veteran Edgar Renteria in January. Janish has a .226 batting average in his brief big league career. But in a balanced lineup, his bat shouldn’t cause Reds fans to panic, especially considering Janish is an outstanding bunter and a Gold Glove-caliber fielder. When the Reds do need some pop, they can go with Renteria, who is a two-time World Series champion (Florida, 1997; San Francisco, 2010). Janish can also fill in for Scott Rolen at third base. Second baseman Brandon Phillips, an All-Star for the first time in 2010, toughed through some injuries to play a team-high 155 games. Having batted leadoff, second and cleanup, Phillips could be moved around in the lineup again with the uncertainty of where Stubbs will bat.

2011 Cincinnati Reds Corners:

First baseman Votto and third baseman Rolen represent the lead-by-example, hard-working players the Reds have long needed to change the clubhouse culture. A year after missing 31 games while battling depression and anxiety, Votto made a serious run at the Triple Crown, becoming the first Reds player to win league MVP since Barry Larkin in 1995. Rolen, meanwhile, was named an All-Star for the sixth time in his career. He turns 36 the first week of the season, and his durability is a concern again this year.

2011 Cincinnati Reds Outfield:

After a horrific July, Jay Bruce hit .338 with 15 home runs down the stretch, including an epic walk-off homer to clinch the division title. In December, the Reds made a statement by signing the 24-year-old right fielder to a six-year, $51 million contract. After failing in the leadoff role a month into last season, Stubbs dropped to seventh and proceeded to become the ninth player in team history to record at least 20 homers and 30 steals in a season. The Reds are still trying to figure out where to bat him in 2011. Left fielder Jonny Gomes is a defensive liability, but the mohawk-maned man is again expected to be one of the team’s top run producers.

2011 Cincinnati Reds Catching:

At a position where most clubs severely lack depth, the Reds have the luxury of calling this one of their all-around organizational strengths. The combination of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan has worked marvelously the past two seasons. Reds catchers led the NL with a .296 batting average in 2010. Hernandez, who has 25 career postseason games on his résumé, batted .342 with runners in scoring position. Cincinnati re-signed Hernandez to a one-year, $3 million deal to allow former first-round picks Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal more time to develop.

2011 Cincinnati Reds Bench:

The Reds enter camp feeling somewhat better about their bench than they did at the start of 2010. Most of that good feeling is because of 36-year-old Miguel Cairo, who parlayed a minor league contract into a two-year, $2 million deal after batting .290 and being a reliable spot-starter at four positions. Former Giant Fred Lewis was signed in hopes he could become the fourth outfielder and defensive replacement for Gomes. The Reds signed Jeremy Hermida, a former first-round pick of the Marlins, to a minor league deal. He is expected to fill the left-handed pinch-hitting role.

Cincinnati Reds 2011 Season Predictions

The Reds didn’t do much over the winter to improve their roster, but a team with this much young talent didn’t need to. The lineup is solid with Votto anchoring things. The rotation is incredibly deep with no shortage of live arms. And the bullpen is once again strong. Cincinnati will enter 2011 as favorites to repeat in the NL Central. – We predict that the Cincinnati Reds will finish 94-68 & 1st in the NL Central Division.

Cincinnati Reds 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 3rd NL Central 80
2007: 5th NL Central 72
2008: 5th NL Central 74
2009: 4th NL Central 78
2010: 1st NL Central 91

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