Cincinnati Reds 2010 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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Cincinnati Reds 2009 MLB Record: 78-84

Cincinnati Reds 2009 MLB Home Record: 40-41
Cincinnati Reds 2009 MLB Away Record: 38-43

Cincinnati Reds 2010 Betting

Cincinnati Reds Odds to Win the National League: 40/1
Cincinnati Reds Odds to Win the World Series: 100/1

Cincinnati Reds 2010 Preview & Prediction

The Reds’ major off season acquisition did absolutely nothing to improve the on-field product. Instead, Cincinnati – 15 years removed from its last playoff appearance and void of a winning season since 2000 – continued to focus on building a star-studded television/radio broadcast team with the hiring of popular Ohio State play-by-play man Paul Keels, who joins the likes of Hall of Farner Marty Brennaman, Thorn Brennaman of FOX fame and former ESPN talking head Jeff Brantley. Otherwise, the cash-strapped Reds did nothing. Ownership made it clear that the 2010 payroll would remain around $73 million. The Reds’ inability to make upgrades at shortstop, in left field and at the back end of the starting rotation means they likely are looking at finishing in the bottom half of the Central Division standings for the fourth consecutive season. No one questions Paul Janish’s glove at shortstop, but his .205 career batting average over 128 big-league games indicates the bottom of the lineup could be an abyss. The Reds figure they have three reliable starting pitchers in Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. The big question, however, is the mysterious drop off of former ace Aaron Harang, who is 12-31 the last two years after finishing fourth in the Cy Young Award voting in 2007. Still, the Reds believe they have the pieces to make a run at a winning season. First baseman Joey Votto (.322, 25 homers, 84 RBI’s) is poised for an All-Star-caliber season. The argument could be made that the Reds made their major move for 2010 on July 31, when they acquired third baseman Scott Rolen in a trade with Toronto. The Reds went 27-13 after Rolen’s arrival, giving Cincinnati something to build on for 2010. Rolen’s presence certainly helps this leadership-starved team, but there are concerns whether the oft-injured and aging five-time All-Star can stay on the field long enough to make an impact.

Cincinnati Reds Manager: Dusty Baker (16 Seasons) Record: 1314 – 1213

Cincinnati Reds 2010 Projected Batting Order: CF Drew Stubbs (R), LF Chris Dickerson (L), 1B Joey Votta (L), 2B Brandon Phillips (R), 3B Scott Rolen (R), RF Jay Bruce (L), C Ramon Hernandez (R), SS Paul Janish (R)

Cincinnati Reds 2010 Projected Rotation: RH Bronson Arroyo, RH Johnny Cueto, RH Aaron Harang, RH Homer Bailey, LH Matt Maloney,

Cincinnati Reds 2010 Projected Closer: RH Francisco Cordero

2010 Cincinnati Reds Rotation:

Will Harang return to the form that helped him to back-to-back 16-win seasons in 2006 and ’07? Or will he remain in the wheel-spinning form that has led to back-to-back six win seasons? If it’s the former, the Reds could surprise. If it’s the latter, Harang – due $12.5 million in the final year of a four-year contract with a $2 million buyout for 2011 – could be part of a mid season fire sale. The Reds are a little more at ease with the uncertainty surrounding Harang because of the emergence of Cueto (11-11, 4.41 ERA) and Bailey (8-5, 4.53). After being reluctant to make suggested adjustments during brief stints with the Reds in ’07 and ’08, Bailey started to show why Cincinnati gave him a $2.3 million signing bonus (third-highest in franchise history) after picking him seventh overall in the 2004 draft. Expect to see Bailey and Cueto continue to make strides under new pitching coach Bryan Price.

2009-2010 Cincinnati Reds Bullpen:

This is one of the few legitimate strengths the Reds have had the last tWo seasons. The relief corps ranked third in bullpen ERA in the NL in ’09 (3.56). And all the key contributors are back. Closer Francisco Cordero, the Reds’ lone All-Star last season, has so far been worth the four-year, $46 million contract he signed before the 2008 season. But Cordero still is owed $25 million over the next two years, and with bullpen depth, the Reds are shopping the three-time All-Star. Nick Masset is a potential closer-in-waiting. The Reds expect right hander Jared Burton to return to the form that made him a consistent performer in the seventh-inning role in ’08.

2010 Cincinnati Reds Middle Infield:

Gold Glove second baseman Brandon Phillips and Janish form one of the best double-play combinations in the National League. Phillips is the only player in Reds history to produce at least 20 doubles, 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in three consecutive seasons. But he is prone to taking plays off and sometimes doesn’t hustle down the line. Those transgressions led manager Dusty Baker to bench Phillips at one point last season. On the positive side, Phillips is durable – he played through a broken thumb for a large portion of the season. He was the only regular position player who did not go on the disabled list.

2010 Cincinnati Reds Corners:

The Reds haven’t been this stable at the corners since Sean Casey and Aaron Boone manned first and third, respectively, early this decade. Rolen was brought in to lead. He’s not a rah-rah guy, but someone who goes about his business diligently and leads by example. The Reds are hoping that will rub off on a clubhouse that still is trying to eradicate the few leftover remnants of a lackadaisical culture. Votto is the Reds’ hardest worker and best all around hitter. After putting his personal problems of anxiety and depression behind and recovering from an inner ear infection, Votta led the club in most major hitting categories.

2010 Cincinnati Reds Outfield:

With Chris Dickerson in left, rookie Drew Stubbs in center and Jay Bruce in right, the Reds will have one of the fastest outfields in the majors. But they also will have one of the most inexperienced. Payroll restrictions forced the Reds to non-tender their only contributing veteran outfielder, Jonny Gomes, who cracked 20 homers in 98 games. Although unproven, Stubbs is a tremendous upgrade over Willy Taveras, a major free agent bust after he signed a two-year, $6.25 million deal. In a 42-game glimpse, Stubbs batted .267 with eight homers and 10 stolen bases.

2010 Cincinnati Reds Catching:

Like most clubs, the Reds lack organizational depth at catcher. But on the big league level, this might be the Reds’ deepest and most established position. The Reds were able to do some cost-cutting in re-signing Ramon Hernandez, who re-upped with the team for one year at $3 million after Cincinnati had declined his $8.5 million option. Hernandez’s ability to produce with runners in scoring position (.328 average in ’09) could spare the bottom of the order from being a total waste. Conversely, Ryan Hanigan is a much better defensive catcher, but he needs to upgrade his hitting, especially with runners in scoring position (.149 last season).

2010 Cincinnati Reds Bench:

The Reds lack the veteran bat off the bench that most contenders possess. General manager Walt Jocketty made an off season run at signing veteran utility infielder Craig Counsell but came up short. That leaves the Reds with the light-hitting duo of Taveras and infielder Adam Rosales as the key bats off the bench. Taveras is one-dimensional – he can only play center field. Rosales does have some versatility. Expect Micah Owings, considered baseball’s best-hitting pitcher, to be called upon regularly to pinch-hit.

Cincinnati Reds 2010 Season Predictions

We predict that the Cincinnati Reds will finish 5th in the NL Central Division .

Cincinnati Reds 5-Year Win Trend

2009: 4th NL Central 78
2008: 5th NL Central 74
2007: 5th NL Central 72
2006: 3rd NL Central 80
2005: 5th NL Central 73

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