St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds
7:10 PM Monday August 9 – ESPN
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Pitching Probables: Chris Carpenter vs Mike Leake
The Cardinals have been losing ground to surprising Cincinnati lately. They aren’t playing that poorly but the Reds have refused to fade and are a couple of games up heading into this crucial series. How important is it, well, St. Louis manager Tony LaRussa juggled his rotation for the series to get all his aces in play. Desperation or just good management…it remains to be seen. The first of those aces will be Chris Carpenter who is on his regular rest. He was unspectacular in his most recent start against the lowly Houston Astros but Carpenter is once again putting up a gaudy record and the Cards are 18-6 when he starts. Included in those totals are three victories over the Reds this season. In 21 innings against the Reds this year he has given up only three runs so there isn’t anyone on the staff better suited to starting this critical road series.
The Reds are in good shape heading into this important intra-division battle. They have a small lead over the Cards already and a chance to really build some distance by taking the series. The Reds are not the most dominant home team (3-3 against STL) this year and haven’t rejigged their rotation like the Cards. As a result Mike Leake will be handed the ball tonight. The rookie has been better than expected this season but like most rookie starters is experiencing a fade – only two of his last ten starts were “quality”. Leake did hold his own in his lone start against St. Louis giving up only 2 runs over 6 innings in a win over Adam Wainright in May. Both teams scored in double digits in their last games before tonight so it will be interesting to see whether pitching or hitting will prevail. With the heat and the ballpark I think the latter is more likely.
The odds makers have Cardinals as a -1½ favorite with a run total of 8.
Prediction: I see a continuation of the offensive explosion from these two teams despite quality hurlers on the bump. Last team to score wins
Score Prediction:
Cincinnati Reds – 8
St. Louis Cardinals – 6
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St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 5 games
- St. Louis is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
- St. Louis is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:
- Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cincinnati’s last 16 games when playing at home against St. Louis
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