Cardinals vs Reds | Prediction & Pick

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St. Louis Cardinals (22-16) vs Cincinnati Reds (20-17)
Friday, May 13, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST on MLB Network

Spread: Cincinnati Reds -5
Money Line: Cardinals -102 / Reds -108
Over/Under: 9

Pitching Probables: Kyle Lohse vs Bronson Arroyo

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The St. Louis Cardinals keep plugging along winning series and building a solid record.  A couple of weeks ago these teams were tied but now St. Louis has built a small lead over the Reds in the NL Central.  This is due in no small part to the surprising effectiveness of today’s starter Kyle Lohse, who has been brilliant with a 2.24 ERA so far (Dave Duncan strikes again).  Combine better than expected pitching with league leading hitting and you have to wonder why the Cardinals don’t have an even better record than they do.  This is a key early series between teams that will meet often throughout the season.  St. Louis took two of three at home back in April with all the games being relatively low scoring affairs.  I think this weekend we will see more runners from both sides cross the plate.  Which might actually play to the advantage of the Cards who are swinging the hot lumber right now.

The Cincinnati Reds will be looking to close the gap at home this weekend.  This will be their tenth straight game against a division opponent and they need to start playing better if they want to close the gap and ultimately overpass the Cardinals in the NL Central.  Things may be looking up as the Reds have recently got great performances from Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey.  Now they need tonight’s starter Bronson Arroyo to follow suit making a statement in the process.  Arroyo’s numbers have been solid  in 2011 but he is just 3-3.  The veteran can set the tone for the weekend with a solid performance, especially if he can get deep into the ball game.  Last year he was 2-0 at home against St. Louis, pitching very well each time so there is some historical precedent to rely on in terms of backing the Reds tonight.

The odds makers have the Cincinnati Reds as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 9.

Check out the latest MLB Baseball Odds here.

Prediction:   Even though Lohse is the latest Duncan reclamation project I still don’t trust him.  Take the Reds in the opener in a game likely to go over the total as well.

Score Prediction: Cincinnati – 7 / St. Louis – 4

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St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends:

• St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of St. Louis’s last 16 games
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis’s last 9 games on the road
• St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games when playing St. Louis