St. Louis Cardinals (50-46) vs. New York Mets (48-48)
Wednesday July 20 – 7:10PM (ESPN)
Pitching Probables: Kyle McClellan vs R.A. Dickey
Spread: New York Mets -1.5
Money Line: New York Mets -115, St. Louis Cardinals -105
Over/Under: 8.5
The National League Central is super bunchy these days and the St. Louis Cardinals are right in the thick of the race. They have been sputtering lately (winning only 4 of last ten including a loss to the New York Mets last night) as they just can’t seem to click on all cylinders. Albert Pujols is back and Chris Carpenter is pitching like an ace again but others who were outperforming expectations early have cooled. That includes tonight’s starter Kyle McClellan who was a surprise early but has lost his last three decisions. In fact he hasn’t won a game since May 19. It is hard to pinpoint exactly why his performance has dipped so much from earlier in the season which makes him hard to feel comfortable backing under any circumstances, especially on the road and amidst a pretty brutal slump. The Cards best chance for victory tonight is to slug away at knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.
With so much swirling around the club right now it is amazing that the Mets are a.500 club. The likelihood is that they will not be able to maintain that winning percentage throughout the second half, especially if key bats Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are dealt as expected. However, until that time and in certain spots they can be a pretty good value play, like tonight. When knuckler Dickey takes the hill you never know what you are going to get but he can be a foil to a potent lineup if the ball is dancing around (case in point: he shut out the Cards for 8 innings in his last start against them in 2010). It is too bad the Mets are in the East and not the other National League divisions where their record would actually have them in the race. With little chance to catch Atlanta, let alone Philly, this will be an interesting team to follow until the trade deadline after which their motivation may be shot.
Prediction: The Mets will take the second game of the series as McClellan continues to struggle. It won’t be a pitchers duel but Dickey will work deep enough to pass to the pen for preservation.
The odds makers have the New York Mets as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 8.5.
Score Prediction: New York Mets – 7, St. Louis Cardinals – 5
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St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis’s last 5 games
- St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 7 games on the road
- St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New York Mets Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Mets’s last 16 games
- NY Mets are 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Mets’s last 10 games at home
- NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
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