137th Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds
The 137th Run for the Roses will take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville this Saturday and features a field as wide open as any to have been seen in recent years.
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Drawing for postpositions took place on Wednesday. And while it’s important to understand the positions close to the rail, and what the odds on the horses are, there are other factors that serious bettors may want to consider.
Since 1982, 14 winners have come from the 10th position or further out from the railing. Only one of the last five winners fit this criteria (Big Brown in 2008), and a victory this year from inside the first nine would mark the third straight year this has occurred. The last to win from there was Ferdinand in 1986. The last horse to finish in the top three from post 1 was Risen Star in 1988. Limehouse (2004) and Jazil (2006) finished fourth breaking from the rail.
That same year was also the last time the horse that started the race on the railing won the Derby. Winning Colors turned the trick that year, just two years after Ferdinand went from worst to first with Willie Shoemaker in the stirrups. Before that, the last contender to win from the first postposition was Chateaugay in 1963. The horse in that spot this year is Archarcharch, who starts at 10-1 odds. The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner will surely have his work cut out for him but was the picture of calm composure with jockey Jon Court up top, as he waited in the “Holthus Gap” for the track to open after the Thursday morning renovation break at Churchill Downs.
Looking at this year’s jockeys, Calvin Bo “rail” is looking to win his third straight Kentucky Derby, and fourth in the last five years. In the previous, four instances that one jockey has won consecutive years, they failed to ‘three-peat’ every time. Borel will be in the irons aboard Twice the Appeal out of the third position, at 20-1 odds. Sandwiched between Borel and the post position is long shot Brilliant Speed at 30-1.
For period of eight years between 1995 and 2002, you had a solid chance of picking a winner by choosing a horse trained by either D. Wayne Lukas or Bob Baffert. During the stretch, the two men combined to win six of the eight races. Since Baffert’s War Emblem won in 2002, eight different trainers have all reached the winner’s circle. Archarcharch and Midnight Interlude, starting in the No. 15 spot and trained by Baffert, are two of the early morning line favorites at 10-1.
The lead favorite on the board is the Nick Zito trained Dialed In, who is listed at 4-1 from the eighth spot. Dialed In has prior experience at Churchill Downs, where he won his first career start by a half-length in November. Zito nearly joined fellow Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert as a three-time champ last year, when Ice Box overcame traffic trouble twice only to finish second, beaten 2 1/2 lengths by Super Saver.
As for the rest of the field: Stay Thirsty is at No. 4 and is listed at 20-1; Decisive Moment is at No. 5 and is listed at 30-1; Comma to the Top is at No. 6 and is listed at 30-1; Pants on Fire, with Rosie Napravnik aboard, is at No. 7 and is listed at 20-1 (this is one to watch); Derby Kitten is at No. 9 and is listed at 30-1; Twin Spired is at No. 10 and is listed at 30-1; both Master of Hounds at No.11 and Santiva at No. 12 are both listed at 30-1; Mucho Macho Man at No. 13 and Shackleford at No. 14 are both at 12-1 odds; and Animal Kingdom is at No. 16 listed at 30-1.
Soldat is at No. 17 and is listed at 12-1. The 3-year-old colt had never been worse than second in seven starts, winning the Fountain of as he headed into the April 3 Florida Derby as the favorite. But after 1-1/8 miles and less than two minutes, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee finished fifth that day at Gulfstream Park.
Finally, a personal favorite of mine, Uncle Mo, who figures to set the pace at No 18, is on the board at 9-2 odds. Even though Mo was upset in the running of last month’s Wood Memorial, the juvenile champion last year should still be considered to place on the board on Saturday.
Rounding out the field are Nehro (7-1), with jockey Corey Nakatani on board and Watch Me Go (50-1), who finished 17 lengths out in the Illinois Derby. Nehro has show consistent signs of maturity as he finished second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 26 then demonstrated a flash of talent in passing eight horses in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 16 at Oaklawn Park, where he finished second by a neck to Archarcharch.
Matt’s Prediction & Free Pick: My trifecta for this weekend’s “Run for the Roses” for the favorites: Dialed In, Archarcharch, and Nehro.
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