When your sitting back
In your rose pink Cadillac
Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day
– The Rolling Stones
Since 2000, only three of the horses who were favorites at the start of the Kentucky Derby have finished in the money, and this year’s 136th running of the Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be no different.
Already scratched from the 2010 lineup was heavily favored, Todd Pletcher’s Eskendereya, whose dramatic withdrawal because of a leg ailment was only to be followed by another Pletcher frontrunner–Rule, who came out of his Monday workout not looking his best and will not make it to the starting gate on Saturday.
As the news from the Pletcher barn hit the wire, all bets has shifted to another early favorite, Lookin’ At Lucky and his trainer –three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. The two have found themselves back atop of the pile just ahead of Sidney’s Candy, Conveyance, Super Saver and Blue Grass winner Stately Victor.
Lookin’ at Lucky was the America’s champion two-year-old last year, winning five of six races with his only defeat by a head in the Breeders’ Cup, a race where jockey Garret Gomez made his task of overcoming an impossible 13 post starting position even harder by tucking him inside and to the rear of the pack.
In 2010, Lookin’ At Lucky has had only two races. He started by winning the Grade II Rebel at Oaklawn Park — his only race on dirt – where he nearly tripped but recovered to run down his nemesis Noble’s Promise in a breath-taking victory. The son of Smart Strike followed with a loss finishing a humbling third behind run away winner Sidney’s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby, but only after bring slammed into the backstretch rail by a reckless Victor Espinoza riding Who’s Up.
But just how does being the newly appointed sweetheart of the odds makers factor in to all of this?
The odds on favorite is beaten 70 percent of the time, so the horse perceived as best fails far more often than it succeeds. In the past decade only four favorites have won the Derby, the latest being Big Brown in 2008. One of the other six times being one of the biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby history when 50-1 long shot Mine That Bird — ridden by then 2008 Kentucky Derby jockey, Calvin Borel, covered a muddy 1-¼ miles in 2:02.66 winning by more than six lengths in 2009.
So, while being the favorite hasn’t necessarily equated into a free pass to the winners’ circle, one thing is for certain. With 20 horses likely in the field, the Derby makes for a challenging race in which to pick a winner. Even the best professional handicappers have miserable track records when it comes to selecting Derby winners over the years. So have fun with your pick, go with your gut, and be sure to get your bets in early.
Don’t forget to check back later this week right here at sportsbooklists.com for more Kentucky Derby betting previews, odds, and picks.
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