NCAA Football Free Pick – Saturday, October 30, 2010
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Michigan @ Penn State – 8:00 PM ET on ESPN
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This is an interesting contest between a couple of teams trying to figure out where they belong the in the Big Ten pecking order. Big Blue has the luxury of coming off an open week which enabled them to better prepare and heal up star QB Denard Robinson while Penn State was unimpressive beating Minnesota last weekend. The Wolverines had dominated the Nittany Lions until RichRod’s arrival. They have lost the last two but I think are a good bet to break that streak on the road in a national spotlight night game. Robinson gives Michigan the clear edge at QB and has been almost unstoppable this season – even against Iowa until he got hurt.
Prediction: Michigan 38 – Penn State 28 – Bet Now
Odds: Michigan: -3 – Penn State: +3 – Over/Under: 52.5
Team records:
- Michigan: 5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS
- Penn State: 4-3 SU, 2-4 ATS
Michigan Wolverines most recently:
- When playing in October are 2-8
- When playing on grass are 4-6
- After outgaining opponent are 6-4
- When playing within the conference are 1-9
Penn State Nittany Lions most recently:
- When playing in October are 8-2
- When playing on grass are 6-4
- After being outgained are 6-4
- When playing within the conference are 7-3
A few betting trends to consider:
- Michigan is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Penn State
- Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Penn State
- Michigan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Michigan’s last 14 games on the road
- Penn State is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games at home
- Penn State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Penn State’s last 7 games when playing Michigan
- Penn State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Michigan
Next up:
- Michigan home to Illinois, Saturday, November 6
- Penn State home to Northwestern, Saturday, November 6
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