Michigan State vs Northwestern | Free Pick

NCAA Football Free Pick – Saturday, October 23, 2010

vs.

#7 Michigan State @ Northwestern – 12:00 PM ET on ESPN

This is a critical game for the Spartans. They are in rarified air with that #7 ranking and must be looking ahead to what could be a huge game against Iowa next week. It is a perfect trap game as they are on the road and out of the spotlight with that noon start. Northwestern is not going to back down and make it easy for them. They are led by an athletic playmaking QB in Dan Persa and could maybe even insert themselves into the Big Ten championship equation with a victory. I see a struggle for MSU but eventually a win. They have such great balance and motivation right now.

Prediction: Michigan State 31 – Northwestern 27 – Bet Now

Odds: Michigan State: -5 – Northwestern: +5 – Over/Under: 53

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Team records:

• Michigan State: 7-0 SU, 4-2 ATS
• Northwestern: 5-1 SU, 1-4 ATS

Michigan State Spartans most recently:

• When playing in October are 7-3
• When playing on grass are 8-2
• After outgaining opponent are 8-2
• When playing within the conference are 7-3

Northwestern Wildcats most recently:

• When playing in October are 5-5
• When playing on grass are 6-4
• After outgaining opponent are 5-5
• When playing within the conference are 6-4

A few betting trends to consider:

• Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Michigan State’s last 13 games on the road
• Michigan State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Northwestern
• Michigan State is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
• Northwestern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• Northwestern is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
• Northwestern is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Michigan State

Next up:

• Michigan State at Iowa, Saturday, October 30
• Northwestern at Indiana, Saturday, October 30