UCLA vs Oregon | Predictions

NCAA Football Free Pick – Thursday, October 21, 2010

vs.

UCLA (3-3, 1-2) at No. 2 Oregon (6-0, 3-0), ESPN, 9 P.M. ET

Being No. 1 has it shares of downfalls; just ask Alabama or Ohio State who after reaching No. 1 in the national polls feel from grace shortly thereafter. Will the Ducks fall victim to the “Curse of No. 1″?

It’s not likely to happen this week as they prepare to take on a struggling UCLA Bruins that will be minus its starting quarterback Kevin Prince, who is apt to be sidelined nursing a knee injury.

However, the last time the Bruins were given no chance on the road, they pounded a then-No.7 ranked Texas. However, what followed was an embarrassing 35-7 loss to Cal, where the Bruins were held to just 114 yards and completed just 15 of 37 passes –the passing attack is ranks 118th of 120 teams in the FBS — while the ground game gained an anemic 26 yards. Inconsistency at its finest.

The Ducks’ are coming off a rather dull 43-23 win over Washington State in Week 7—considering how bad the Cougars are — but they still gained 556 yards. Yards have come rather easily for the Ducks that have won six straight and lead the PAC-10 with a perfect 3-0 record.

UCLA will have to rely on its running machine that is averaging 223 yards per game. If the Bruins’ pistol attack doesn’t backfire, they could have a big day. If you remember, both Stanford and Arizona State managed more than 500 yards versus Oregon.

The Bruins’ last win at Autzen Stadium came in a 34-26 victory back in 2004, and if the fail to contain Oregon stud LaMichael James, it’s likely to be a blowout.

Prediction: Oregon – Bet Now

Odds: UCLA: +24.5 – Oregon: -24.5 – Over/Under: 61.5

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Team records:

• UCLA: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS
• Oregon: 6-0 SU, 3-2 ATS

UCLA Bruins most recently:

• When playing in October are 2-8
• When playing on turf are 3-7
• After being outgained are 4-6
• When playing within the conference are 4-6

Oregon Ducks most recently:

• When playing in October are 9-1
• When playing on turf are 10-0
• After outgaining opponent are 8-2
• When playing within the conference are 9-1

A few betting trends to consider:

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of UCLA’s last 6 games when playing Oregon
• The total has gone UNDER in 16 of UCLA’s last 23 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of UCLA’s last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of UCLA’s last 12 games on the road
• Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• Oregon is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon’s last 6 games when playing UCLA

Next up:

• UCLA home to Arizona, Saturday, October 30
• Oregon at Southern Cal, Saturday, October 30