2010 NLDS Reds vs Phillies Prediction

2010 NLDS Preview – Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies

Series Odds: Philadelphia Phillies:  -400, Cincinnati Reds: +250

Series Schedule: October 6, 8, 10, 11, 13

Projected Starters: Reds: Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto; Phillies:  Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt.

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Series Overview: It was no surprise to see Philadelphia make the playoffs again but there was concern at mid-season.  Since then the Phillies have been the hottest team in the majors easily catching and surpassing the Atlanta Braves for another NL East crown.  Cincinnatti also has been cooled down the stretch.  This year’s biggest surprise team is in the playoffs for the first time in over a decade due to consistent play going unchallenged the last month due to the complete collapse of the St. Louis Cardinals.  Unfortunately their gift for their success is a playoff date with the Phillies who have become the Vegas favourite to win the World Series.  It is easy to see why.

Cincinnati:  The Reds have had a very nice season.  When you look at their lineup they have a lot of promising young players but the only one who had a truly outstanding season was Joey Votto, who will definitely receive some MVP votes and might actually win the award.  The same goes for their pitching staff.  Bronson Arroyo won a career high 17 games but his peripherals were about the same as always.  He is a model of consistency but hardly a true ace, as evidenced by the fact that Edinson Volquez will be tapped to start game 1 of the series in Philadelphia.  Cincinnati has arrived a little earlier than everyone expected in making the playoffs this season.  In a year or two they should be a more formidable squad as their young players continue to develop, especially a pitcher or two.  Oops…almost forgot to mention rookie phenom Aroldis Chapman, he of the 105mph heater.  Sadly there may not be any key situations for him to flash his stuff but we should all get a treat seeing him face off against some of the better lefthanded hitters in the league on the Phillies.

Philadelphia:  The Phillies teased us throughout the first half.  For some inexplicable reason the offense was horrid and the pitching wasn’t good enough to make up the difference.  Here we are at season’s and the Phillies are a respectable 7th in runs per game with the best starting rotation in the majors heading into the postseason.  The Phils lineup is mostly healthy after losing  key players like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins for stretches of the season.  They can certainly hurt you with the long ball but also have enough speed to put pressure on opponents with the run game.  The weakest link on this team is the bullpen where Brad Lidge is capable of scaring his own team as much as the opposition.  Thank goodness they have a trio of starters – Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt  – who consistenly work deep into games, enabling Charlie Manuel to limit the impact of the unpredictable pen.  Everyone is saying that this team is better than the championship team of 2008.  Now it is time to show it.

Series Prediction: I just can’t see a scenario where the Phillies don’t take the series.  It will be exciting to see Aroldis Chapman make Ryan Howard whiff but when it is at the end of a 6-2 loss for the Reds will it really matter?  The Phillies should sweep the Reds but don’t worry Reds fans, you should be right back in the playoffs next year.

Best Investment: Take the over when Roy Oswalt starts in the series.  From his years with the Astros he is the starter the Reds are most familiar with.  In his last start with the Astros Cincy tagged him for 6 runs in only five innings.  Bet the over when he takes the mound likely in game 3 at Great American Ballpark.  With these offenses and an O/U likely in the 7-8 range this should be a solid play.

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Game 1: Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Wed, Oct. – 6 5:00 PM EST on TBS
Game 2: Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Fri, Oct. 8 – 6:00 PM EST on TBS
Game 3: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Sun, Oct. 10 – 7:00 PM EST on TNT
Game 4*: Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Mon, Oct. 11 – 5:00 PM EST on TBS
Game 5*: Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies Wed, Oct. 13 – 6:00 PM EST on TBS