Saints vs 49ers | Prediction & Pick

Monday, September 20, 2010 at 8:30 PM EST on ESPN

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New Orleans at San Francisco –  The Saints got off to a good start with a 14-9 victory over Minnesota last Thursday, winning a rematch of the NFC title game.

The defense, which held the Vikings scoreless for three quarters has shown mass improvement over last year’s late game fades and was the difference in this one.

New Orleans finished with 308 yards, while 2009 Super bowl winner MVP Drew Brees completed 27 of 36 and opened the scoring with a 29-yard TD pass to Devery Henderson.

Niners’ Alex Smith didn’t fair as good and will need to play much better than his Week 1 outing against Seattle if he wants to out-gun Brees in San Francisco’s home-opener. Smith threw a pair of decisive interceptions as the 49ers gave up 28 points over a seven-minute span falling to Seattle 31-6.

The Niners were held to just 263 total yards while Pro Bowl running back Frank Gore was virtually non-existent, finishing with an anemic 38 yards on 17 carries.

New Orleans has beaten San Francisco the last five times the two have met, with the Saints most recent trip to San Francisco, resulting in a 31-10 victory Oct. 28, 2007.

The Saints need to score early, as San Francisco is not a team that plays well when they are behind. The Niners will want to run the ball, keeping Smith from having to force passes. Brees should be able to spread the field with multiple-receiver sets, scoring early and forcing the 49ers to abandon the run to try to catch up.

The odds makers have the Saints as a -5.5 point favorite with and over/under of 44.

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New Orleans Saints Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 8 games
• New Orleans is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
• New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
• New Orleans 17-3-1 SU in its last 21 games

San Francisco 49ers Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco’s last 7 games
• San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 5 games at home
• San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home