Cincinnati Reds (44-35) at Chicago Cubs (34-44)
Tuesday July 2, 2010 – 2 :20 PM ET on WGN - FREE Expert MLB Picks
Starting Pitchers
CIN: B. Arroyo (7-4, 4.49)
CHC: R. Dempster (6-6, 3.58)
Drew Stubb’s game-wining RBI grounder in the 10th lead the Cincinnati Reds to a 3-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs and a major league-best – 25—come-from-behind to win, in game one of a four-game series on Thursday at Wrigley Field.
Pinch-hitter Miguel Cairo singled and scored as the Reds walked away with their ninth straight extra-innings win on the road, and eighth victory in 10 games.
The Cubs will look to reverse the trend against their division rivals in a game two matinee on Friday, as the Reds have taken two of three in each of the teams’ first two series, and 21 of the 27 runs they’ve scored in those victories came in the seventh inning or later.
Fans booed baseball’s third-highest payroll team as the Cubbies dropped to 11 games below .500, falling 10 1/2 games behind NL Central-leading Cincinnati, their lowest point since finishing 2006 at 66-96.
Trying to turn things around will be right-handed starter Ryan Dempster. The veteran has shown his durability for the Cubs this year as his shortest outing has been 5 1/3 innings on June 10. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 105-to-37 is one of the best in the majors.
The Canadian-born Dempster worked seven innings walking one and striking out eight in his sixth win of the season, as the Cubs beat cross-town rivals, the Chicago White Sox 8-6 on Sunday. He allowed a total of nine hits including a two-run single in a flimsy first inning to Carlos Quentin, and a leadoff homer to Paul Konerko in the sixth. In 36 games — 12 starts — against the Reds, Dempster has a 5-5 record with a 4.29 ERA.
It won’t be easy for Chicago, as they will have to face Bronson Arroyo. Chicago’s North side has been kind to the 32-year old who has gone 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA in his last six outings at Wrigley, and 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in his past three starts overall versus Chicago.
Looking at on paper, it should be a drop in the bucket for the veteran righty as he faces a team that is hitting just .215 over their last 10 outings, and .179 with runners in scoring position during the same span.
Arroyo is coming off his first loss in the month of June as he gave up two home runs to Cleveland’s Shin-Soo Choo on Sunday as the Indians beat the Reds, 5-3. He lasted five innings and allowed four earned runs on six hits. He struck out three and walked two. Arroyo isn’t striking out as many batters this year (52), but a solid performance against a team he has dominated, could help boost that total.
Chicago’s Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee are hitting a combined .218 (24 for 110) against Arroyo.
Joey Votto, a .329 hitter at Wrigley, singled twice Thursday to extend his streak of reaching base to 39 games. He is certainly comfortable at Wrigley, where he’s a lifetime .325 hitter with seven homers in 21 games.
The odds makers have the Cubs as –1-½ – favorites with a run total of 9.
With Arroyo on the mound, Votto hitting well in the power slot and the Cubs anemic offense, this one has to go to the Reds and the UNDER.
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Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:
- Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games on the road
- Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 12 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends:
- Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
- Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
- Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs’s last 12 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
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