142nd Belmont Stakes - Saturday June 5, 2010
Belmont Park in Elmont, New York
Post time approx. 6:30 PM EST
TV: ABC, beginning at 5 PM EST
With Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness winner Lookin’ at Lucky being no-shows for this Saturday’s 142nd running of the Belmont Stakes race, the absence of a heavy favorite makes for some tempting wagering.
Post-position draws will be held on Wednesday, but unlike the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, it won’t matter as much in this 1½-mile marathon, as horses and jockeys will have plenty of time to make up for early traffic issues on Belmont’s endless backstretch.
The field of 12 is set and the race’s biggest names are Derby runner-up, Ice Box, along with Preakness second place finisher First Dude, and the winner of the Dwyer Stakes, Fly Down.
Who will go the distance?
With the Belmont being such a long race, horses who take the lead early and settle into a pace tend to prosper more than closers who make last second charges from deep in the pack. This could make First Dude a favorite because of his front-running style. In January, in a one-mile maiden race at Gulfstream Park, Dude pressed a solid pace and drew off to win by 2 3/4 lengths. In his next race, a 1 1/8-mile allowance race, he put away the odds-on favorite Colizeo, but couldn’t hold off the late run from Fly Down, the same horse that beat First Dude in a maiden race last Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs. Dude was also beaten by Ice Box in the Florida Derby, and has only won one race in his career.
Fly Down – a hometown favorite, from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer and Belmont based Nick Zito — is the only contender who has raced twice at Belmont, winning the Dwyer on May 8 and finishing third in his racing debut last year. Unlike stablemate Ice Box, Fly Down has plenty of positional speed, which will only be a factor if he can keep pace with the front-runners in the stretch.
Ice Box will probably be favored in the morning line. He looked great at the Kentucky Derby, but the favorites there had to contend with a sloppy surface, with some handicappers playing down the legitimacy of his strong second place finish. Still this colt seems to be getting better on each and every time out.
Meanwhile, of the other nine contenders, Make Music for Me who ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and Stately Victor who was eighth, are the only other two horses that have competed in multiple 2010 Triple Crown legs, making the remaining seven Triple Crown first-timers.
The Belmont is a wide-open race, with all sorts of ways to win–or lose. Because of its unique demand on horse and rider, it always delivers some exciting racing and surprising finishes.
My trifecta pick for this Saturday’s race: Ice Box, Fly Down and First Dude.
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