Saturday, March 13, 2010 – NCAA Free Pick
San Diego State Aztecs (24-8) vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (25-7)
The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will be looking to clinch their third championship in four years when they tip off against the San Diego State Aztecs in the Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship bout on Saturday at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
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The Aztecs beat the then-No. 23 Rebels 68-58 at Viejas Arena in the most recent meeting just four weeks ago. However, the Rebs still hold a 32-16 advantage over SDSU. Today’s game will be a rematch of the 2002 MWC Tournament title game, when San Diego walked away with a narrow 78-75 victory and the crown.
The stakes are high for the fourth-seeded Aztecs. Not only would a victory avenge their 52-50 loss to Utah in last year’s MWC championship game, but more importantly it would solidify their bid to this year’s NCAA Tournament, after being listed as an at-large team. After squeaking out a 72-71 win over Colorado State in Thursday’s quarterfinals, the Aztecs took care of eighth-ranked and top-seeded New Mexico on Friday with a 72-69 victory. Junior forward Billy White (11.3 ppg) netted a game-high 28 points while leading scorer Kawhi Leonard (12.7 ppg.) chipped in 15 points and 12 rebounds in the win. The Aztecs shot an impressive 51.9 percent from the floor, hitting on 10-of-16 shots from three-point range and 8-of-9 at the free-throw line. SDSU’s scoring attack is rounded out by double-digit scorers 6-foot-9 forward Malcolm Thomas (11.1 ppg), and junior D.J. Gay (10.3 ppg). The foursome is outscoring opponents by nearly nine points per contest while the defense is holding foes to 62.3 points per game.
The Rebs meanwhile, are the third seed in the 11th annual MWC Tournament and the host school for this year’s event. UNLV extended their win streak to six and earned a pass to the championship by first defeating sixth-seeded Utah in the quarterfinals by a score of 73-61, and then edging out 14th-ranked and second-seeded BYU 70-66 on Friday night. The Rebs nearly saw their chances of making it to the finals flushed away when they blew an 11 point lead in the second half yesterday, before pulling out the unexpected win. Standout guard Tre’Von Willis led the Rebels with 18 points, while 6-foot-8 sophomore forward Chace Stanback added 17 points and Brice Massamba another 13 points and six rebounds off the bench in the win. Willis, who paces the squad with 17.5 ppg, finished a perfect 6-of-6 at the stripe including a few critical free throws down the stretch. The junior has connected with 159-of-186 at the free-throw line, helping the Rebels to make good on 72 percent at the stripe in 2009-10. The Rebels defense was so-so and despite allowing all-conference star Jimmer Fredette to come up with 30 points, pretty much shut down the remaining threats on the Cougars offense. Not surprising from a team that ranks third in the conference in points allowed at 63.9 per game.
The Rebels, owners of a conference-record four tourney titles, will have the hometown crowd in their favor in tonight’s contest. It now becomes even more important as the Rebs will try to secure an NCAA Tournament bid. However, SDSU will not roll-ove, and may wreak havoc as it did to tourney favorites New Mexico, with their dominate inside presence
The odds makers have the Runnin’ Rebels as –4 ½ -point favorites in this one.
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I expect the Mack to back UNLV as they edge out a hard-fought three-point victory and another MWC title.
San Diego State Aztecs Basketball Betting Trends:
- San Diego State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
- San Diego State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
- San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing UNLV
- San Diego State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing UNLV
UNLV Rebels Basketball Betting Trends:
- UNLV is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- UNLV is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- UNLV is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego State
- UNLV is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego State
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