The Super Bowl is easily the most heavily bet event in all of sports. While there are millions of dollars wagered on traditional bets such as the outcome against the spread and the over/under, a substantial amount of money is also wagered on a number of prop bets. A prop bet is an alternative bet on many of the different facets of the game from the coin toss to which team kicks the longest field goal. The following are the odds for a few of the available prop bets and my prediction for each.
Super Bowl XLIV MVP
Peyton Manning 2/3, Drew Brees 9/4, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush 10/1 Dallas Clark, Marques Colston 12/1, Jeremy Shockey 22/1, and Dwight Freeney 30/1.
In the last ten Super Bowls a quarterback as won the MVP five times, a wide receiver has won it three times and a defensive player has won twice. Since there is no money to be made on taking Manning, a safe bet would be to take Brees. My long shot pick is Dallas Clark at 12/1. A tight end has never won the Super Bowl MVP, but against this Saints’ defense he is set up to have a big day.
You can parlay this bet with “who the winner will thank first?” God 20/23, family 6/1, teammates 5/4, or the coaches 10/1. Personally, I never bet against God.
First TD Pass
Drew Brees +125
Peyton Manning -155
I like the return on Brees in this one and if the Saints win the coin toss it makes it all that much better.
Total Sacks- Robert Mathis
Over .5 -115
Under .5 -115
With the Colts other DE Dwight Freeney either out of this game or severely limited in his movement, I like Mathis’s chances of stepping it up and getting at least one sack on his own.
Will Dallas Clark score a TD?
Yes -135
No +105
Since he is my long shot pick for MVP, this is a good follow up bet as I see him getting into the end zone at least once.
Who will have more receptions in the game?
Even though we know that both quarterbacks will look to spread the ball around, both these guys are still their primary target. I’ll take Colston and the +1.
Historical Match-Up; Total passing yards, which will be higher?
Drew Brees -125
John Elway- Super Bowl XXI (304 yards) - 105
Brees is going to need a big day if the Saints are going to have any chance to win as they are going to have to match the Colts touchdown for touchdown. Since I’m picking this to be a close game, I like his chances of Brees passing for over 304.
There are literally dozens of other prop bets that the various sports books offer action on. If you feel confident about any one particular player’s chance to have a huge game this Sunday, this could be a great way to cash in on your hunch as there are a number of bets that pit one player’s performance against his counterpart on the other team. You can always still bet on the coin toss, which team scores first, or if the total number of first downs will end in an odd or even number, but the player to player bets can really make things interesting.
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