Super Bowl XLIV – Preview and Predictions

Super Bowl 44 – New Orleans Saints (13-3) at Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

Colts vs Saints Free Pick

After 17 weeks of the regular season and three weeks of postseason play we are down to the final two teams that will battle it out for the right to be called World Champions. The Indianapolis Colts will face the New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV this Sunday night, February 7^th in a 6:00 P.M. start from Sun Life Stadium in Miami, FL. Each team comes in as the number one seed in their conference and the current spread has the Colts favored by six points and the total line is at 56.5.

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On the surface this game appears to be a battle of the quarterbacks as each team has one of the best in the league. New Orleans QB Drew Brees ended the regular season with the highest quarterback rating in the league with a 109.6. He completed over 70% of his passes, threw for 4,388 yards and a league high 34 TD’s. In his two postseason games he has completed 40 of 63 attempts for 444 yards, six TD’s and no interceptions. This season, Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning threw for 4,500 yards with a 68.8% completion percentage. His 33 TD’s were second only to Brees. He also won an unprecedented fourth league MVP award for his performance this year. This postseason he has completed 56 of 83 attempts for 623 yards, five TD’s and one interception. You would have to think that the entire defense game plan will revolve around putting as much pressure as possible on the opposing team’s QB in an effort to keep these two from picking the secondary apart. The problem with this plan is that both of these guys know out to get rid of the ball very quickly and find the open man. Their true strength is the ability to spread the ball around to a number of different receivers.

One big advantage for the Saints is their running game. Their rushing offense finished the regular season ranked #6 while Indianapolis was ranked #32. In the postseason they are averaging 119.5 yards per game while the Colts are averaging 71.5. If the Saints can find a way to effectively run the ball it will take a lot of pressure off of Brees, which should allow some things to open up for him down field. Indianapolis on the other hand will look to complete short passes to keep moving the chains as a way to compensate for their lack of a solid rushing attack. This plan worked to perfection in the second half of the conference title game against the Jets.

New Orleans has relied all year on their defense’s ability to create turnovers. They ended the season ranked 25^th in total defense but their turnover ratio was +11. Guys like Darren Sharper and Tracy Porter will be flying all over the field trying to knock the ball loose or pick one off in an effort to come up with a big play. For Indianapolis, the most pressing concern is the health of All-Pro DE Dwight Freeney. He injured his right ankle in the game against New York and while he is currently listed as questionable it is believed that the injury is much worse than first expected. If he cannot go on Sunday this would be a tremendous loss for the Colts as he led the team in sacks with 13 ½. With Freeney out of the lineup the pressure will be on their other DE Robert Mathis to pick up the slack.

All in all, this game will come down to which team’s QB can best execute the game plan. While the advantage would appear to go to Peyton Manning and the Colts, New Orleans has been able to find a way to keep games close even when they are not playing their best. This game should be a shootout as everyone expects and go right down to the final minutes before the outcome is decided. With that in mind, I’m taking the Saints +6 and the OVER on 56 ½.

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