While two weeks ago the over was the strong play, this past week was all about the under. Ten games stayed under the total, while only five games went over. There was one push as the total in the Jets @ Patriots game matched the line at 45. There were some close calls as Miami and Carolina combined for 41 points against a 43.5 point line, Pittsburgh and Kansas City pushed their game over in overtime with 41 points against a 40 point line, Minnesota and Seattle combined for 44 points against a 46 point line, and Philadelphia and Chicago’s total line was 45 and they scored 44 points. It is games like these that drive you crazy turning a sure bet into a loss. Certain games were never in doubt as on the high end Cleveland and Detroit had taken their game over by halftime ending up double the total line of 37.5 with 75 total points. The Cowboys are proving to be a safe under bet as for the second week in a row their offense was held to only seven points, scoring a late 4th quarter touchdown. This week they won their game, beating the Redskins 7-6. Another team that is lacking in offensive fire power lately is Baltimore. Once averaging close to 30 points a game, they have only averaged 12.7 points their last three games. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week twelve.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers Current Over/Under 41.5
Jacksonville has won four out of their last five games but has not scored more than 24 points in any of those games. Their offense is ranked 12th in total yards per game with 354, but they are ranked 21st in points per game with 19.9. Their winning formula has been playing solid defense and handing the ball to RB Maurice Jones-Drew who is averaging 3.8 yards a carry. San Francisco has fallen on hard times losing four out of their last five. Their offense is averaging 20.8 points a game and ranked 27th in overall yards per game. The strength of this team is also playing solid defense and keeping the ball on the ground with their All Pro RB Frank Gore. This has the makings of a grind it out game with hard-nosed defense and not a lot of scoring. I like this game to stay UNDER,
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Current Over/Under 47
The Viking’s offense is the most balanced in the league ranking 10th in both rushing and passing yards per game. With Brett Favre at quarterback, Adrian Peterson at running back, and Sidney Rice at wide receiver they have three of the highest ranked players at their position. All of this accounts for their incredible ability to put points on the board. In that category they are ranked #2 in the league averaging 30.6 per game. The struggles of Bear’s QB Jay Cutler have been well documented but they are still averaging over 20 points a game and are ranked 14th in passing yards per game. Under the track- like conditions of the Metrodome, I’m looking for a fast paced game with a number of big plays. I’m taking this game to go OVER.
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos Current Over/Under 42
These two teams have only won once in their last nine games combined but they still have 6-4 records and are still very much in the middle of the playoff picture. Despite their recent woes the Giant’s offense is ranked 4th overall and averaging almost 27 points per game. Last week against the Falcons, Eli Manning threw for 384 yards and three touchdowns as they won 34-31. Denver’s offense has struggled the last three games but QB Kyle Orton has been hampered with an ankle injury. He practiced this week and is expected to start against New York which should help stabilize the situation. These are two solid teams that can score points when things are clicking, especially the Giants. I look for an exciting game before a nationally televised audience on Thanksgiving night. Take this game to go OVER.
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