Last week’s totals results reversed a two week trend that slightly favored the under bet, with nine games going over the total and only six staying under. All six games that stayed under did so by double digits. The 49ers and Bears combined for only 16 points with a 43.5 total line. The Ravens shut out the Browns, but could only manage 16 points of their own. The Packers held the Cowboys to only seven points and were only a few minutes away from pitching a shutout. In no real surprise the Chiefs and Raiders combined for only 26 points with an already low 36.5 total line. The Bengals and Steelers game was all about defense as they combined for only 30 points against a 42 point total line. As far as the over, Indianapolis and New England led the way combining for 69 points, including 31 in the 4th quarter. Tennessee scored 41 points against the Bills taking the game over on their own against a 40.5 total line. The following are my top three Over/Under picks for week eleven.
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions Current Over/Under 38.5
I think it is safe to assume that these are the two worst teams in their respective conferences and having a combined record of 2- 16 should go a long way to confirm this. To further make my case, the Browns offense is ranked 32nd in total points and their defense is ranked 27th in points allowed. The Lions offense is ranked 26th in total points and their defense is ranked 32nd in points allowed. Neither team can score nor can either team stop anyone else from scoring. This all adds up to woeful afternoon of football filled with mistakes, turnovers, penalties, but not points. I’m betting the farm on this one staying UNDER.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Current Over/Under 41.5
This is one of the best rivalries in football that usually ends up being a very close game no matter what each team’s record was heading into it. In fact they have split their last ten meetings right down the middle. While the Redskins offense is ranked 29th in points per game, their defense has been fairly solid allowing on an average of only 19 points per game, good for 9th in the league. The Cowboys defense has also been stingy, giving up just less than 19 points per game, good for 8th in the league. Tony Romo is coming off his worst game of the season, as Dallas did not convert a third down until the 4th quarter and scored their first points of the game with a little over two minutes to play in a 17-7 loss to Green Bay. While I do not expect them to play as bad this week, the Cowboys have struggled all season long against the better defenses they have faced. I’m staying with the UNDER.
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams Current Over/Under 46.6
This outcome of this game rests squarely on the arm of Arizona QB Kurt Warner. Last week against Seattle he threw for 340 yards, 2 TD’s and no interceptions in a 31-20 win. The week before he threw for 261 yards, 5 TD’s and no interceptions in a 41-21 win over Chicago. Before that he threw five interceptions against Carolina in a 34-21 loss. Here is the take away from all this; the Cardinals will give up 20+ points a game no matter who they are playing, they will score at least 20+ points a game no matter how bad Warner is playing, and if he is playing well they will score 30+ points. When you add all this up and then throw in the fact he is playing against his old team, in St. Louis I strongly like the chances of this game going OVER.
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