While I still think the 5-0 Indianapolis Colts are the best team in the AFC, you cannot help but be impressed with the 5-0 Denver Broncos and the 4-1 Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams came up with huge victories last week and now sit alone atop their respective divisions. The Broncos knocked off the New England Patriots 20-17 in overtime, while the Bengals pulled another last minute victory over their divisional rival, Baltimore 17-14. These were probably two of the last teams anyone expected to be playing so well before the season started. Another big surprise is the AFC East, with New England sitting at 3-2 tied with the Jets who have now lost two straight and one game ahead of the Dolphins who won their last two. As was the case last year, this division is shaping up to be a three way battle that should come down very end. In the AFC South, the Colts have already opened up a three game lead over the Jaguars and Texans and appear to be almost unstoppable. If Denver can beat San Diego this Monday night, they will have a 3 ½ game lead in the AFC West over the Chargers.
Moving onto week six in the AFC the key match ups we will be reviewing are; Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Brown @ Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers.
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4) Current Over/Under 45.5
If the Texans are to have any chance to salvage another season that has gotten off to a bad start, they have to find a way to win this game. Once again, they have lacked the consistency needed to finish and win games. Last week against the Cardinals they erased a 21 point deficit and had a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter with a 1st and goal from the Arizona 6 yard line only to come up short on 4th down. Cincinnati on the other hand has found a way to win the close games ever since a heart breaking loss in the final seconds to Denver in week one. The Bengals do not have flashy statistics as their offense is ranked 18th overall and their defense is ranked 17th, but unlike Houston they have made the big plays when they needed them the most. Texan QB Matt Schaub, who is currently ranked 3rd in the league in total passing yards should be able to move the ball against a Bengal defense that is ranked 23rd against the pass. In order to win, Schaub will have to eliminate the mistakes that have cost his team down the stretch. Look for Houston to hang on in this one and cover the spread if not win outright. Take the over as both these teams will put points on the board.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-15) Current Over/Under 38
This game made the list only because of the divisional rivalry involved as anything can happen in games like this. Cleveland is coming off their first win, all be it a 6-3 yawner against the Bills. They still have no offense to speak of as they have only scored a total of 35 points in their last four games. While they rank 31st overall on offense, you just cannot blame them as their defense is equally as bad, ranking 29th. For Pittsburgh this has been a strange season so far. They are 3-2 and only one game back in the division, but have hardly looked like the team that won the Super Bowl last season. They should be better once they get RB Tony Parker and CB Troy Polamalu back in the lineup as they were definitely missed. The Browns will be playing with a bit more confidence and find a way to keep this game within two touchdowns. Stay with the under as well.
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-4) Current Over/Under 44
This game does not set up well for the Broncos. They will have to find a way to avoid a letdown after last week’s big win over New England while traveling on the road to face a division rival coming off a bye week. Once again they will need to rely on their defense to carry them in this game. If they can find a way to shut down Charger’s QB Philip Rivers and the 2nd ranked passing offense in the league, they have a good chance to win this game. It will be extremely difficult for San Diego to run the ball against Denver as they are dead last in the league, averaging only 54 yards a game on the ground. Offensively, the Broncos need to keep doing what they have all season long, stay patient running the ball while carefully picking and choosing their spots downfield. This strategy will go right at the main weakness of the Chargers, their run defense. While on paper the Broncos should win this game, given the circumstances San Diego finds a way to win. Look for a bunch of points in the 4th quarter to take this game over the total.
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