West Virginia Mountaineers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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West Virginia 2008 Record: (9-4, 5-2)
West Virginia 2008 Bowl: Meineke Car Care Bowl vs. North Carolina (W 31-30)
West Virginia Coach: Bill Stewart (9-4 at West Virginia, 17-29 overall)
West Virginia Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Mullen
West Virginia Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Casteel
West Virginia Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Noel Devine, RB, 1,289 yards
• Passing: Jarrett Brown, QB, 114 yards
• Receiving: Alric Arnett, WR, 466 yards
• Tackles: J.T. Thomas, LB, 65
• Sacks: Julian Miller, DE, 3.5
• Interceptions: Brandon Hogan, CB, 3

Notable West Virginia Returning Players: DE Scooter Berry, OT Selvish Capers, S Sidney Glover, C Eric Jobe, TE Will Johnson, LB Anthony Leonard, DT Chris Neild, CB Robert Sands, WR Braldey Starks, TE Tyler Urban, LB Reed Williams

West Virginia Key Losses: S Quinton Andrews, G Jake Figner, G Greg Isdander, LB Mortty Ivy, WR Dorrell Jalloh, CB Ellis Lankster, K/P Pat McAfee, DT Doug Slavonic, OT Ryan Stanchek, QB Pat White

To say that 2008 was a weird year in Morgantown is an understatement. After the extremely messy divorce with former head coach Rich Rodriguez, the Mountaineers fell in love with interim coach Bill Stewart after he coached WVU to a shocking upset against Oklahoma and decided to give him the job full time. However, his first full season wasn’t a continuation of Rodriguez’s scheme. Despite Pat White returning for his senior season, WVU went to a more pro-style offense and that seemed to hold them back most of the year. However, a 9-4 record was still a very strong outcome, though it was the worst record in White’s career. With only 12 starters back this fall, WVU has a lot of work to do to fill the shoes of one of the school’s greatest players.

Last year the Mountaineers’ scoring average dropped precipitously to less than 25 points per game after averaging well into the thirties during White’s first three years. During Rodriguez’s last season, WVU put up nearly 40 points per game! This fall, senior Jarrett Brown finally gets his chance to play after backing up White for three seasons. I expect Brown to be very good in his only season starting but he is a more physical runner than White so injuries are a concern. With him in the backfield is junior Noel Devine, who ran for 1289 yards and 4 touchdowns last year while adding 35 catches to earn 2nd team All-Big East honors. Again, the concern for injury is paramount as there is next to no experience behind Devine and he is clearly the best fit for the system. Brown’s transition will also be made easier by the return of most of his receivers. Senior Alfric Arnett (466 yards, 6 touchdowns) and junior Jock Sanders (462 yards, 7 touchdowns) should get open early and often for Brown. My only concern for the Mountaineers is the offensive line, which only returns one starter and loses a 2 year starter, two 3 year starters and a 4 year starter! While the Mountaineers do have a lot of players who have experience to go along with senior tackle Selvish Capers, the lone holdover from a year ago, they should have some early struggles. Overall, if the Mountaineers can stay healthy I expect them to improve upon last year’s production but there is no doubt that their health is a concern.

Defensively, things look much brighter. West Virginia has been the most consistently strong defense in the conference since 2002, never allowing more than 23 points per game. Even better, six of last year’s starters are back for another season after allowing a league-low 17 points per game. Up front, the defensive line looks strong and will be led by junior nose tackle Scooter Berry, who was a 2nd team All-Big East selection last season. Expect WVU to field another solid run defense as their line will be stout, though they didn’t develop much of a pass rush last fall. Keep an eye on sophomore defensive end Julian Miller, who is expected to start after nothing 3.5 sacks in a limited role last year. At linebacker there are some losses as their top two tacklers from last season depart. Junior J.T. Thomas is the team’s leading returning tackler and will be bolstered by the return of senior Reed Williams, who redshirted last year after struggling with should injuries. While a lot of production is lost, I expect WVU to be just fine at linebacker. The secondary looks very good as three starters return from a group which allowed less than 200 passing yards per game in 2008. Junior cornerback Brandon Hogan snared three interceptions last fall and could be an All-Big East caliber performer. While the loss of their top three tacklers from 2008 is a concern, I think that the Mountaineers will reload instead rebuild and field their typically tough defense once more.

The schedule is an interesting mix. First, the Mountaineers have four road Big East games, three of which are at Rutgers, USF and Cincinnati. That’s not an easy draw. However, their only Big East game in the first half of the year is at lowly Syracuse, which means that WVU will have plenty of time to work out any kinks with their new lineup before beginning conference play. That’s a big boost. Furthermore, they’ll be challenged in the non-conference portion of the season as they travel to Auburn and host East Carolina and Colorado so they should be well prepared for the conference grind. Overall, the Mountaineers will no doubt miss Pat White. After all, he was probably the best player ever to put on a West Virginia uniform. However, their offense was really not that productive last fall and I think that a 2 nd year in the new system for the returning players will really help. Furthermore, they’re going to field another very good defense this year, which will keep them in every game. I expect WVU to be a very good team this fall and their season will come down to the final two games of the year; Home against archrival Pitt and a road trip to Rutgers on the season’s final day. The conference title could be on the line in both games. While I’m not picking the Mountaineers to win the conference title partly due to concerns about their depth on offense at key positions, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if they did. Regardless of whether they win the Big East, the Mountaineers have a good chance at a ten win season.

West Virginia Big Games: Sept. 12th vs. East Carolina, Oct. 1st vs. Colorado, Oct. 30th @ USF, Nov. 13th @ Cincinnati, Nov. 27th vs. Pittsburgh, Dec. 5th @ Rutgers

West Virginia’s Strength:

The defense returns eight starters to a unit that ranked 11 th in the nation in scoring defense. The team only gave up 17 points per game and it could be even better this year. Most of the defense was pretty young last year too. Defensive lineman Scooter Berry was just a sophomore and had a great year, linebacker Anthony Leonard will be a team leader in another year and cornerback Brandon Hogan keeps getting better with every game. Those youngsters will only be more effective this year, but for now this team belongs to linebacker J.T. Thomas. The junior linebacker does a great job of getting into the backfield and he will help out the front line by pressuring the quarterback. Linebacker Reed Williams should also return after missing all of 2008 with a shoulder injury. That makes the defense that much stronger and scoring on the Mountaineers will never be easy.

West Virginia’s Weakness:

It is impossible to understate what Pat White did for the West Virginia program. During his senior campaign, White threw for 1,842 yards and 21 touchdowns and rushed for another 974 yards and eight trips to the end zone. His absence will sorely be missed and the team will not look the same without him. Quarterback Jarrett Brown is the new man and the senior should be a decent replacement. With wide receiver Alric Arnett back as the deep threat and Jock Sanders available out of the backfield, Brown has plenty of receiving options. Noel Devine is not a bad pass catcher either, but of course he will do most of his damage on the ground. Devine rushed for 1,289 yards and four touchdowns as a sophomore and he will have to carry the load while the passing attack readjusts to life without White.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Mountaineers:

The biggest problem on offense is the absence of the entire offensive line. Life without guard Greg Isdaner and tackle Ryan Stanchek will not be easy. Center Eric Jobe is the most experienced player on the line and he will have to step up immediately and become a leader. If the line cannot give Brown any time to operate, the Mountaineers offense will suffer. Even so, the defense is good enough to earn West Virginia a Big East championship and a trip to the BCS.

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