UCLA Bruins 2009 Football Betting Preview

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UCLA 2008 Record: (4-8, 3-6)
UCLA 2008 Bowl: none
UCLA Coach: Rick Neuheisel (4-8 at UCLA, 70-38 overall)
UCLA Offensive Coordinator: Norm Chow
UCLA Defensive Coordinator: Chuck Bullough
UCLA Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Derrick Coleman, RB, 284 yards
• Passing: Kevin Craft, QB, 2,341 yards
• Receiving: Taylor Embree, WR, 531 yards
• Tackles: Reggie Carter, LB, 83
• Sacks: Korey Bosworth, DE, 7.5
• Interceptions: Rahim Moore, S, 3

Notable UCLA Returning Players: WR Terrence Austin, K Kai Forbath, TE Ryan Moya, DT Brian Price, LB Steve Sloan, DE Reginald Stokes, CB Alterraun Verner

UCLA Key Losses: RB Kahlil Bell, LB John Hale, DT Brigham Harwell, S Bret Lockett, CB Michael Norris, P Aaron Perez, C Micah Reed

Much was made of UCLA’s hiring of former star quarterback Rick Neuheisel last season. Neuheisel, who was massively successful at his last two jobs before leaving amidst shrouds of NCAA violations, was widely expected to quickly return the Bruins to prominence in the Pac Ten. After a season-opening upset victory over Tennessee, hopes spiraled out of control. Unfortunately, reality quickly set in as UCLA drudged its way to a 4-8 finish, thanks in large part to terrible quarterbacking. However, this didn’t dampen enthusiasm for the Bruins as Neuheisel brought in one of the country’s best recruiting classes. After a year in charge, Neuheisel will be looking to take the next step. With sixteen returning starters, is a bowl berth in the cards?

The biggest problem with the Bruins last season was their offense’s inability to protect the football. Former starter Kevin Craft threw 20 picks, at least 6 of which were returned for touchdowns! This season, redshirt freshman Kevin Prince was named the starter coming out of the spring and hopes are high that he’ll be better at protecting the football. Despite the issues at quarterback, UCLA returns a fairly deep group of receivers, led by senior Terrence Austin, who had 53 catches last fall and was a 2nd team All-Pac Ten selection. Senior tight end Ryan Moya was also a 2nd teamer on the all-conference team and he led the Bruins with 3 touchdown grabs. Expect this group to be much more productive this year with decent quarterback play. The offensive line took a beating last year as Neuheisel saw the writing on the wall and started three freshmen. I think that this line will be significantly improved this year and Prince should have plenty of protection after Craft was sacked 35 times last season.

The Bruins also boasted the conference’s worst running game last fall and that should see a big boost as well. Sophomore Derrick Coleman was decent as the backup last year and freshman Milton Knox was one of the country’s best tailbacks coming out of high school. I expect both to get plenty of carries and provide a much better rushing attack. After putting up only 17 points per game last fall, I think that UCLA should definitely see some improvement on offense in 2009.

Defensively, the Bruins were better than most people realized. Consider the terrible field position they were consistently put in by an ineffective offense that turned the ball over all of the time and you’ll be surprised that they didn’t allow more points! This fall, there are a ton of players back from last year and I think that the fortitude gained from last season’s difficult journey will pay off in a big way. Up front, two starters are back, 1 st team All-Pac Ten junior tackle Brian Price and senior end Korey Bosworth, who was a 2 nd team All-Pac Ten choice after racking up 7.5 sacks. The Bruins were beaten too often on the ground but I think that these two should anchor a solid line. Keep in mind that Neuheisel played a lot of underclassmen last year and the line is the most difficult place for young players to succeed. At linebacker, senior Reggie Carter was also a 2nd team All-Pac Ten choice after leading the Bruins in tackles. Along with senior Kyle Bosworth, who was a major contributor in 2007 before an injury forced him to redshirt last season, Carter should anchor a strong group of linebackers and I expect the Bruins to be better against the run.

The secondary was surprisingly good last year, finishing 2 nd in the conference in yardage allowed through the air! Senior cornerback Alterraun Verner was a 1 st team All-Pac Ten choice after making 73 tackles, breaking up 20 passes and snagging two interceptions. Sophomore safety Rahim Moore was impressive as a true freshman as he made 60 tackles and led the team with three interceptions. I really think that UCLA has the pieces in place to field a very solid pass defense, though they will be young. Overall, the Bruins return four players who were either first or second team all-conference choices on defense and they’ll be bolstered by a lot of young up and comers. With one of the most talented units in the Pac Ten, I expect UCLA to field one of the conference’s best defenses this fall.

The schedule is much friendlier in 2009. UCLA’s non-conference schedule featured three ranked team in 2008 while this year they probably won’t face a ranked team outside of league play, though a trip across the country to play Tennessee is daunting. On the flip side, they have five conference road games and they finished with a 1-4 mark away from the Rose Bowl last year so they’ll have to be better away from home this fall if they want to have a chance at a winning record.

After so much trouble last season on offense, I think that if Prince can produce even average quarterback play then the Bruins will be a much better team. I really like the strength of their defense and would not be surprised to see it emerge as one of the league’s best. However, their offense is still a long way away from becoming the dangerous unit that Neuheisel envisions and many of their most talented players are underclassmen. I think the Bruins are at least a season away from making a run at the conference title but they have a very good chance at reaching a bowl game this year. I think six or seven wins is the most likely outcome but with Neuheisel’s strong recruiting, it might not be too long before UCLA becomes a player in the title chase once more.

UCLA Big Games: Sept. 12th @ Tennessee, Oct. 3rd @ Stanford, Oct. 10th vs. Oregon, Oct. 17th vs. Cal, Oct. 24th @ Arizona, Oct. 31st @ Oregon St, Nov. 28th @ USC

UCLA’s Strength:

It is the defense that has the most potential. The front line was nothing special a year ago, but tackle Brian Price earned all-conference first team honors. On the ends Korey Bosworth and Reginald Stokes can be very disruptive, but the team as a whole only tallied 1.75 sacks per game last year. That number has to go up or the entire defense will continue to struggle. In the middle of the defense outside linebacker Reggie Carter is the star. After leading the team with 83 tackles as a junior, Carter is prepared to emerge as the senior leader. In the secondary it is corner Alterraun Verner who is prepared to take the next step. Along with free safety Rahim Moore, the secondary should be in good shape.

UCLA’s Weakness:

The offense was just awful at times last year. The good news is nine starters return, but that might be the bad news too. The real problem is the offensive line. The group turned running back Kahlil Bell’s senior season into a dud and allowed nearly three sacks per game. Even the best skill players in the conference would have trouble succeeding with an offensive line like that. And UCLA lacks a superb playmaker. At quarterback Kevin Craft threw 20 interceptions and just seven touchdowns. Receivers Terrence Austin and Taylor Embree have rarely gotten the opportunity to do much of anything and replacing Bell will not make things any easier. Sophomore Derrick Coleman had a decent freshman campaign, but if Bell could not get the ground game moving, it is unlikely Coleman will have any more luck.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Bruins:

The defense has the potential to be very special and that could be enough to put UCLA into a bowl game. The schedule is not too difficult and winning six games should be a reasonable goal. However, if the offense is as bad as it was last season, squeezing out a road win or two will be extremely difficult. The Bruins have to find consistent play from their quarterback or at least a running back who can make some plays or the offense will not go anywhere and the defense will be put in a bad position.

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