TCU Horned Frogs 2009 Football Betting Preview

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TCU 2008 Record: (11-2, 7-1)
TCU 2008 Bowl: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Boise State (W 17-16)
TCU Coach: Gary Patterson (73-27 at TCU, 73-27 overall)
TCU Offensive Coordinator: Jarrett Anderson and Justin Fuente
TCU Defensive Coordinator: Dick Bumpas
TCU Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Joseph Turner, RB, 577 yards
• Passing: Andy Dalton, QB, 2,242 yards
• Receiving: Jimmy Young, WR, 988 yards
• Tackles: Daryl Washington, LB, 63
• Sacks: Jerry Hughes, DE, 15.0
• Interceptions: Jerry Hughes, DE, 2; Nick Sanders, CB, 2

Notable TCU Returning Players: OT Marcus Cannon, RB Ryan Christian, G Kyle Dooley, K Ross Evans, WR Bart Johnson, S Tejay Johnson, OT Marshall Newhouse, CB Rafael Priest

TCU Key Losses: RB Aaron Brown, WR Walter Bryant, S Steven Coleman, LB Robert Henson, S Stephen Hodge, G Giles Montgomery, DT Cody Moore, DE Matt Panfil, LB Jason Phillips, TE Shae Reagan, C Blake Schlueter, DT James Vess

TCU has played the bridesmaid in two of the last three seasons, finishing as runners up in 2006 and 2008 in conference play. Last season was especially crushing as TCU blew a late lead and missed three field goals in a brutal 13-10 loss at Utah late in the season, the Horned Frogs’ only conference loss. TCU fielded the MWC’s top defense last fall, only allowing more than 17 points once, in a loss to national runner up Oklahoma! Their season average was an incredible 11.4 points per game! The Horned Frogs capped off a great year by holding unbeaten Boise State to 16 points in a winning Poinsettia Bowl effort and finished the season ranked 7 th in the nation! Head coach Gary Patterson is one of the most respected coaches in the country and TCU has been fortunate to fend off BCS conference schools to keep him in Forth Worth for the past eight seasons. While TCU is always one of the conference’s best teams, they only return ten starters from last year’s fantastic group and will have a lot of work to do if they want to break the bridesmaid run.

On offense, TCU produced their best unit during Patterson’s tenure in 2008, averaging nearly 34 points per game. This was thanks in large part to a powerful rushing attack, which gashed opponents for an average of 220 yards per game! The Horned Frogs return six of last season’s top seven rushers, led by senior tailback Joe Turner, who ran for 577 yards and 11 touchdowns. Junior quarterback Andy Dalton was a strong rusher, accounting for 432 yards and 8 touchdowns while also passing for 2,242 yards and 11 touchdowns against only 5 interceptions. Dalton’s favorite target should once more be junior wideout Jimmy Young, who caught 59 passes for 988 yards and 5 touchdowns last season. Expect TCU to be a stronger passing unit while still emphasizing a very strong rushing game. The offensive line has to replace some talent as they lose three starters, one of which was an NFL draft choice. However, both tackles return after earning 2 nd team and honorable mention All-MWC selections in 2008 and should give the Horned Frogs the conference’s top tandem. While I don’t expect TCU to eclipse last season’s exceptional rushing total, I still think that this offense could actually be stronger than last year and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the conference.

Defensively, the Horned Frogs only return four starters from the conference’s best defense. The good news is that TCU hasn’t allowed opponents to average more than twenty points per game in the past four seasons, though they haven’t had to deal with the same level of turnover. The front seven is where most of the losses are incurred as senior defensive end Jerry Hughes is the only starter back. However, Hughes was the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year last season and a 1 st team All-American while leading the NCCA in sacks with 15, so I’d say he’s a pretty darn good building block for the new front seven. The Horned Frogs have a lot of experience along the defensive line and junior tackle Kelly Griffin actually started two years ago as a true freshman so I think that TCU should be perfectly fine at the point of attack. The run defense also looks strong despite losing both starters at linebacker (TCU plays a 4-2-5) and their rover safety, all of which were 1 st team All-MWC choices and NFL draft picks. Senior Daryl Washington was 4 th on the team last fall with 63 tackles and three sacks and should fill in quite nicely in one of the linebacker spots. While the Horned Frogs’ run defense is definitely going to be weaker after losing their top three tacklers to the NFL, I still think that they should field one of the conference’s stronger units. The secondary boasts by far the most experience on the defense, returning three starters. Both cornerbacks are seniors and were 2 nd team All-MWC selections last fall and junior safety Tejay Johnson contributed 47 tackles and a pick. With all of their experience and strong play, I expect TCU to field one of the conference’s best secondaries in 2009. Overall, TCU has some work to do in replacing seven starters from a group which was the 2 nd best in the country in scoring average but I am very confident that the Horned Frogs will reload and field their typically excellent defense.

The schedule is a mixed bag as the Horned Frogs only have six home games and must travel to Clemson and Virginia in the non-conference season. The conference road games won’t be easy either as they road trip to Air Force, favorite BYU and Wyoming. However, it isn’t all terrible; The Horned Frogs don’t play back to back road games all year and host Utah, UNLV and rival SMU. There is also no behemoth on the schedule like Oklahoma last fall. Overall, I expect TCU to field one of the conference’s best offenses once more this season while reloading on defense and should once more compete for the conference title. If they surprise early and sweep their non-conference schedule, they could be a darkhorse BCS buster. Anything less than nine wins this season will surprise me.

TCU Big Games: Sept. 26th @ Clemson, Oct. 3rd vs. SMU, Oct. 10th @ Air Force, Oct. 24th @ BYU, Oct. 31st vs. UNLV, Nov. 14th vs. Utah

TCU’s Strength:

However, the strength of the team could be on offense where just about everybody returns. TCU rushed for over 220 yards per game and they could be even better this year. Aaron Brown is gone, but Joseph Turner, who led the team with 577 rushing yards in 2008, and Ryan Christian form a dynamic backfield duo who most defenses will have trouble stopping. The offensive line did a great job last year and should be strong once again led by tackle Marshall Newhouse. The news on the offensive side of the ball just keeps getting better with the improvement of quarterback Andy Dalton. The junior now has two years of starting experience under his belt and he is ready to take the next step. Even as a sophomore he connected on nearly 60 percent of his passes and only threw five interceptions. With Jimmy Young ready to emerge as a superstar receiver, Dalton should be in for a big year.

TCU’s Weakness:

It is really difficult to call the TCU defense a weakness, but only four starters are back. One of those starters is defensive end Jerry Hughes. Last year he tallied an amazing 15.0 sacks and 19.5 tackles-for-loss. However, Hughes had players like Matt Panfil and Cody Moore by his side and that helped distract the opposing offensive line. Teams would certainly focus on Hughes when possible, but Panfil and Moore made it very difficult to do so. That may not be the case this year if the Horned Frogs cannot find another pass rusher or two. In TCU’s 4-2-5 defense, the two linebackers had to be versatile and dominating players. Jason Phillips and Robert Henson certainly fit that description and finding a way to replace those two will be nearly impossible. Most of the starters who are returning are in the secondary, but Nick Sanders and Steven Coleman will not be as effective without a consistent pass rush from the rest of the team.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Horned Frogs:

There are holes to fill on defense, but TCU has talented players like linebacker Daryl Washington who should be able to fill the void. It may take a little while for everything to come together, but the Horned Frogs are not going to lose games because of their defense very often. And if the offense can develop into something special, this could be a big, big year for Texas Christian and Coach Patterson.

TCU Betting Odds

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