South Florida Bulls 2009 Football Betting Preview

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South Florida 2008 Record: (8-5, 2-5)
South Florida 2008 Bowl: St. Petersburg Bowl vs. Memphis (W 41-14)
South Florida Coach: Jim Leavitt (87-52 at South Florida, 87-52 overall)
South Florida Offensive Coordinator: Mike Canales
South Florida Defensive Coordinator: Joe Tresey
South Florida Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Matt Grothe, QB, 591 yards
• Passing: Matt Grothe, QB, 2,911 yards
• Receiving: Jessie Hester, WR, 579 yards
• Tackles: Jerome Murphy, CB, 67
• Sacks: George Selvie, DE, 5.5
• Interceptions: Jerome Murphy, CB, 2

Notable South Florida Returning Players: S Nate Allen, WR Dontavia Bogan, RB Mike Ford, DT Aaron Harris, G Zach Hermann, WR A.J. Love, DT Terrell McClain, WR Carlton Mitchell, RB Moise Plancher, OT Jacob Sims, LB Kion Wilson

South Florida Key Losses: DE Jarriett Buie, OT Marc Dile, WR Marcus Edwards, S Louis Gachette, C Jake Griffin, TE Cedric Hill, G Matt Huners, WR Taurus Johnson, LB Tyrone McKenzie, LB Brouce Mompremier, CB Tyller Roberts, G Ryan Schmidt, S Carlton Williams

2008 turned out to be a massively disappointing season for the Bulls. A year after rising all the way to #2 in the national rankings at midseason, the Bulls started 2008 with a 5-0 record, including a win over a ranked Kansas team. However, the Bulls then fell off the map, losing five of their next seven games to finish the regular season with a massively disappointing 7-5 record. Perhaps they were anointed too soon, after all this program is only twelve years old. However, this fall will truly be the first test of USF as a viable major program within the state of Florida as they face off against Florida State and Miami for the first time in the same year.

The Bulls’ offensive output dropped by more than a touchdown per game last fall; during their 2nd half streak of ineptitude they only surpassed 21 points in a game once! A major factor in last season’s disappointment was their negative 8 turnover margin; a statistic that quarterback Matt Grothe must improve. While Grothe threw for 2,911 yards and ran for 591 yards while producing a combined 22 touchdowns, he also threw 14 interceptions. That can’t happen this fall and I believe that Grothe’s fourth and final season as the starter will be his best by far. Four of his top five receivers from last year are back as well, led by senior Jesse Hester, who had 54 catches. Expect Grothe to have a plethora of options to throw to. The running game will also continue to be strong as no less than three returning tailbacks had over 300 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns apiece. Expect Grothe and his three headed monster to provide a solid rushing attack, assuming someone blocks for them. The offensive line is really my only concern about the Bulls as only one starter is back from last season. The good news is that there is a lot of talent on the line and I don’t think they’ll take as big of a step back as you’d expect from a line that loses two All-Big East performers. Most notable is the addition of junior Daron Rose, who actually started the entire 2007 season for rival Florida State before running into academic issues. Expect him to start right away at left tackle. Overall, I think that the Bulls will be a much more balanced offense and I expect Grothe to turn the ball over less. That means that South Florida will have a better offense this fall and should improve their results on the scoreboard.

Defensively, the Bulls were actually better in 2008 than they were during their excellent 2007 season. USF only allowed 20 points per game and they bring back six starters from last year’s team. South Florida’s defensive line is led by senior end George Selvie, a two time 1 st team All-Big East selection and a 2007 All-American. One of three starters back, Selvie will lead one of the conference’s best defensive lines and will be a force against both the pass and run. At linebacker, senior Kion Wilson is the only returnee after racking up 66 tackles last fall. With the strength of the line in front of them, the linebackers’ lives will be a lot easier while running to the football. Despite the loss of 1 st team All-Big East ‘backer Tyrone McKenzie, the Bulls will still have a strong linebacking corps. In the secondary, two starters return from a very good unit last fall. Unlike last year, the Bulls don’t have to replace the NCAA’s best cornerback tandem and I expect their secondary to be very good again with the extra experience. Senior cornerback Jerome Murphy is the team’s leading returning tackler with 67 and also had two picks in 2008. Expect the South Florida pass defense to be very good. Overall, South Florida is strong from front to back and the Bulls should have one of the conference’s best defenses.

The schedule is decidedly tougher than last fall. The Bulls have four conference road games and two very stiff non-conference tests. The good news is that two of their home games are weeknight games against defending champion Cincinnati and perennial power West Virginia. Another factor to note is that USF is a much stronger home team than on the road so they’ll have to avoid upsets against the likes of Syracuse and UConn. The non-conference schedule is perhaps just as important as conference play this year as the Bulls will be looking to legitimize themselves as one of the elite Florida schools. Florida State and Miami will have their hands full with a hungry USF team and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won either game despite the fact that I think FSU and Miami are probably more talented teams. Overall, South Florida should be a strong team this fall and if they can win a few key road games (Pitt and Rutgers immediately come to mind) then I would not be surprised to see them challenge for the conference title. With the in state grudge matches on tap as well, 2009 should be the most important season in the program’s young history. Expect nothing less than eight wins this fall.

South Florida Big Games: Sept. 26th @ Fl
orida State, Oct. 15th vs. Syracuse, Oct. 24th @ Pittsburgh, Oct. 30th vs. WVU, Nov. 12th @ Rutgers, Nov. 28th vs. Miami (FL)

South Florida’s Strength:

Selvie struggled through 2008 due to injuries, but he still managed to tally 5.5 sacks and 13.5 tackles-for-loss. Despite the injury, Selvie still could have gone off to the NFL, but he is back for another year at USF and, if he can stay healthy, he can dominate the Big East. The interior of the line returns Aaron Harris and Terrell McClain and few teams in the conference will be as experienced and talented as South Florida’s front four. New coordinator Joe Tresey will have to find some new linebackers, but Kion Wilson is a good piece to build around. The secondary was decent most of the time and the return of free safety Nate Allen and corner Jerome Murphy should keep the decency going for another year.

South Florida’s Weakness:

The offense is built around Matt Grothe and the quarterback has certainly paid his dues and turned into a dynamic signal caller who can make plays with his hands and feet. But at times the offense is nothing but Grothe. Running back Mike Ford was not very effective last season and Grothe ran the ball a lot more than Ford. Ford is now an upperclassman, which should help, but can he turn the offense into more than just Grothe? The absence of much of the offensive line, including center Jake Griffin, guard Matt Huners and tackle Marc Dile, will not make things any easier. Those three were very experienced players and will be missed. If the line cannot give space and time for Grothe and Ford, this offense will not be the best in the Big East again this year. If Grothe has time to make good decisions, he has plenty of options down field. Jessie Hester, Carlton Mitchell, A.J. Love and Dontavia Bogan are all capable receivers.

Our Prediction for the 2009 USF Bulls:

USF has the skill players to win the Big East. The key will be the offensive line and how well they can protect the skill players. The defense should be good and has the potential to be great if Selvie is healthy and defensive coordinator Tresey can fill in a few holes. Most importantly for the defense is creating turnovers. The Bulls have athletes and a ball hawking mentality, but they rarely created turnovers last year. The offense, on the other hand, always created turnovers and both of those things have to change.

South Florida Betting Odds

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