Pittsburgh Panthers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Pittsburgh 2008 Record: (9-4, 5-2)
Pittsburgh 2008 Bowl: Sun Bowl vs. Oregon State (L 0-3)
Pittsburgh Coach: Dave Wannstedt (25-23 at Pittsburgh, 25-23 overall)
Pittsburgh Offensive Coordinator: Frank Cignetti
Pittsburgh Defensive Coordinator: Phil Bennett
Pittsburgh Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Aundre Wright, WR, 34 yards
• Passing: Bill Stull, QB, 2,356 yards
• Receiving: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, 404 yards
• Tackles: Dom DeCicco, S, 56
• Sacks: Greg Romeus, DE, 7.5
• Interceptions: Dom DeCicco, S, 4

Notable Pittsburgh Returning Players: CB Aaron Berry, CB Jovani Chappel, C Robb Houser, G John Malecki, OT Jason Pinkston, WR T.J. Porter, DE Jabaal Sheard, OT Joe Thomas, WR Oderick Turner, LB Greg Williams, DT Mick Williams

Pittsburgh Key Losses: FB Conrdge Collins, G C.J. Davis, DT Rashaad Duncan, WR Derek Kinder, K Conor Lee, RB LeSean McCoy, LB Scott McKillop, LB Austin Ransom, RB LaRod Stephens-Howling, S Eric Thatcher

The Panthers had a very successful 2008 season. After rebounding from a shocking loss to Bowling Green in the season opener, Pitt rebounded to go 5-2 in conference play and defeat Iowa and Notre Dame in the non-conference! That gave them a 9-3 regular season record and a berth in the Sun Bowl against Oregon State. Had the Panthers won, it would have been their first ten win season since 1981 when Dan Marino was under center! However, the Panthers lost an old school slugfest 3-0 and finished 9-4. Regardless of the bowl finish, last season was a huge milestone for head coach Dave Wannstedt, whose job was on the line after only winning 16 games in his first three seasons despite bringing in three consecutive top 25 recruiting classes. Needless to say, his job is now safe. Pitt returns a lot of talent and their 15 starters back is tops in the conference.

On offense, the Panthers have a huge hole to fill with the loss of tailback LeSean McCoy, who was a NFL 2nd round draft pick. His backup, LaRod Stevens-Howling, was also drafted so there is a dearth of experience at the tailback position. While the Panthers have some very good talent on hand, there is no question that they’ll take a step back in the rushing attack as McCoy was nothing short of exceptional last year. At times, he carried the entire offense. The good news is that Pitt has two quarterbacks returning who have significant starting experience. However, I’ve said for two years that if the Panthers could just get a passing attack behind McCoy then they’d be unstoppable and they didn’t manage to pull it off. Hopefully, senior Bill Stull or junior Pat Bostick will finally step up and turn the Panthers’ pass offense into a force. Expect sophomore Jonathan Baldwin to be the top target after catching three touchdowns last fall as a true freshman. Baldwin was an absolute physical force last year and with a year of training has the tools to be the conference’s best receiver if he keeps his nose clean. My optimism for Pitt’s offense continues with the return of four starters on the offensive line. Wannstedt’s relentless recruiting has brought in a lot of talented big men and I expect this to be the best line Pitt has fielded in a very long time. The Panthers scored a solid 27 points per game last fall and I actually expect that to improve with a much better passing game and a rushing attack that shouldn’t fall as far as some might think. Pittsburgh will have a good offense this fall.

Defensively, the news is even better. After allowing 21.5 points per game last year, their best since 2002, the Panthers bring back seven starters. The defensive line looks to be one of the conference’s best, led by junior defensive ends Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard, who combined for 96 tackles and 11 sacks last year. In fact, the only open spot on the line is expected to be filled by senior Gus Mustakas, who actually started the entire year in 2006 before struggling with injuries the last two years. The Panthers might have the conference’s best defensive line. At linebacker, they will miss the enormous production of departed middle linebacker Scott McKillop. However, there is still a lot of talent, including sophomore Greg Williams, who had 3.5 sacks last fall. Following the injury vein, the other two expected starters, seniors Adam Gunn and Shane Murray, were actually the full time starters at the outside ‘backer positions in 2007 before missing much of last season due to injury. Expect both to be very good if they can stay healthy this fall. The secondary also looks very good, led by junior safety Dom DeCicco, who had 56 tackles and four interceptions in 2008. Both starting corners are returning seniors who combined for five interceptions a year ago and should both be considered among the conference’s best. Expect Pitt’s strong pass defense to continue to give opposing quarterbacks trouble this year. If the Panthers can stay healthy, then I expect that this will the conference’s best defense.

The schedule is fairly challenging. Remember, the Big East’s unbalanced schedule means that some teams have four home conference games while others only have three. This year, the Panthers have four and will be favored in all of them. Their road schedule is tough as all three conference away games are on Friday nights and two of those games are at West Virginia and Rutgers. The non-conference schedule is also solid, as the Panthers travel to NC State and host Navy and Notre Dame. If the Panthers can split the games at WVU and Rutgers then the conference is theirs to lose. Overall, Pitt will have a much more balanced offense after relying almost exclusively on the run the last two years and their defense is the conference’s best. If either Stull or Bostick steps up and takes command this fall, Pitt could be very good. I expect the Panthers to be one of the conference’s best along the line of scrimmage and I expect Pittsburgh to win the Big East title for the first time since 2004.

Pittsburgh Big Games: Oct. 2nd @ Louisville, Oct. 16th @ Rutgers, Oct. 24th vs. USF, Nov. 27th @ WVU, Dec. 5th vs. Cincinnati

Pittsburgh’s Strength:

The offense completely relied upon LeSean McCoy in 2008 and now he is gone. By default, this team’s strength lies on the other side of the ball. The front four is extremely talented, led by ends Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard. Those two were consistently getting into the opponents backfield and that should not change this year. With tackles Mick Williams, Gus Mustakas and Tommie Duhart returning, the absence of Rashaad Duncan should not be much of an issue. If the front four continues to put pressure on the opposition, the secondary will once again be among the best in the conference. Strong safety Dom DeCicco deserves much more credit than he gets and both corners, Aaron Berry and Jovani Chappell, will return to their starting roles. The biggest concern is at linebacker where the Panthers have to replace tackling machine Scott McKillop. Greg Williams will have to fill the leadership role and the defense will need to find a couple capable players to fill in around him.

Pittsburgh’s Weakness:

Without McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling, Pitt suddenly has to rely on their passing game more than they would like to. Quartberack Bill Stull threw more interceptions than touchdowns and only completed 57 percent of his pass attempts. He has some quality receivers to work with, most notably Jonathan Baldwin, T.J. Porter and Oderick Turner, but Derek Kinder was his favorite target and he is now gone. The other receivers have to be more consistent and Stull has to make smarter decisions or the offense will be moving very slowly. On the ground Kevin Collier and Shariff Harris will be asked to make an immediate impact. Those two have virtually no game experience, but Pitt simply does not have many other options.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Panthers:

What the offense does have is an experienced offensive line. Four starters return and three of them are seniors. Tackles Joe Thomas and Jason Pinkston and center Robb Houser should be able to pave the way for the running game to at least be decent even without the two superstar running backs. However, this is the same group that gave up nearly two and a half sacks per game last year. Some of that blame falls on Stull, but the line will need to show that they can do more work this year and not just let McCoy do his thing.

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