North Carolina Tar Heels 2009 Football Betting Preview

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North Carolina 2008 Record: (8-5, 4-4)
North Carolina 2008 Bowl: Meineke Bowl vs. West Virginia (L 30-31)
North Carolina Coach: Butch Davis (12-13 at North Carolina, 63-33 overall)
North Carolina Offensive Coordinator: John Shoop
Defensive Coordinator: Everett Withers
North Carolina Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Shaun Draughn, RB, 866 yards
• Passing: T.J. Yates, QB, 1,168 yards
• Receiving: Greg Little, RB, 146 yards
• Tackles: Quan Sturdivant, LB, 122
• Sacks: Bruce Carter, LB, 5.0
• Interceptions: Kendric Burney, CB, 3; Deunta Williams, S, 3

Notable North Carolina Returning Players: DT Marvin Austin, C Lowell Dyer, CB Jordan Hemby, OT Kyle Jolly, DE Robert Quinn, G Alan Pelc, DT Cam Thomas, DE E.J. Wilson

North Carolina Key Losses: P Terrence Brown, G Calvin Darity, WR Brooks Foster, S Trimane Goddard, WR Hakeem Nicks, LB Mark Paschal, TE Richard Quinn, OT Garrett Reynolds

North Carolina’s hiring of Butch Davis three years ago could turn out to be the best decision in the history of their football program. Davis, the architect of the most recent Miami dynasty, took over a team that had gone 3-9 the year before his arrival and turned it into an 8-5 contender in only two years! Furthermore, Davis has been one of the country’s best recruiters and the Heels are stacked with young talent. This fall there are fifteen starters back as Davis’ top recruits are beginning to see the field and North Carolina is a serious contender for the ACC Coastal division title.

The offense will be in the very capable hands of junior T.J. Yates, who missed half of last season due to injury but still threw for 1,168 yards and 11 touchdowns against only 4 interceptions. In fact, North Carolina was leading against Virginia Tech in the second half when Yates was injured but couldn’t hold on without him, a loss which would eventually cost the Heels a berth in the ACC Title Game. Yates will be backed up by a strong running game, led by juniors Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston, who combined for over 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns last fall. They’ll run behind an experienced offensive line that returns three starters and Davis’ recruiting should begin to pay off in the trenches. I expect UNC to improve upon last season’s decent rushing totals. The only question on offense is at receiver, where four players, including last year’s starting tight end, were selected in the NFL draft! However, junior Greg Little impressed in limited action at receiver after making a mid-season switch from tailback and he could be a major breakout performer. Falling back to the recruiting theme, Davis has a ton of highly rated receivers ready to step in, so I expect that UNC will once more have a solid passing game though there will certainly be a lot less star power. Overall, the Tar Heels averaged just less than 28 points per game last fall despite losing their starting quarterback for half of the season. With a full year in charge, I expect Yates to guide the Heels to Davis’ best offense yet.

The defense looks even more promising. Nine starters are back from 2008, including four of the top five tacklers. Everything starts up front, where junior tackle Marvin Austin is the headliner of a group that returns everyone from last fall, including the backups! While the starters only combined for 5 sacks last season, I expect this talented unit to become much more dangerous in pressuring the quarterback while anchoring a strong run defense. At linebacker, junior Quan Sturdivant was a 2nd team All-ACC choice last year after racking up 122 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 picks! He should be the star of a solid group which should be strong in all facets of the game. Expect UNC to field a great run defense this season. The secondary should also easily carry their weight despite losing 1 st team All-ACC safety Trimane Goddard, who led the league with 7 picks in 2008. The other three starters are back and they combined for seven picks in 2008 while making a lot of tackles. While they do need to cut down the opposition’s completion percentage and did struggle at times last season, I expect this group of rising juniors to be a much improved unit. Overall, the Heels look like they will be improved in all facets, stronger against both the pass and run. After finishing in the bottom half of the league in points allowed in 2008, North Carolina should rocket up the rankings this fall and field one of the ACC’s best defenses.

The schedule is also fairly navigable, featuring seven home games. The non-conference schedule is highlighted by a trip to Connecticut and a visit from East Carolina, two games that UNC will be favored in, and a 4-0 record outside of the ACC is a strong possibility. In conference, their opener at Georgia Tech will be very telling but the toughest stretch of the year will be later in the year when they play Florida State, Virginia Tech (in Blacksburg on a Thursday night, which is usually death for Hokie opponents) and Miami in a four week span. Their draw from the Atlantic Division is also fairly tough as they have to travel to defending champ Boston College and improved NC State to close the year on top of the FSU game. However, aside from one difficult stretch, the schedule is set up enough for North Carolina to have a great record. With a settled quarterback position and an improved defense, North Carolina could legitimately contend for the ACC Championship in Davis’ third season and a ten win season is a strong possibility.

North Carolina Tar Heels Big Games: Sept. 26th @ Georgia Tech, Oct. 2nd vs. FSU, Oct. 9th @ Virginia Tech, Nov. 14th vs. Miami, Nov. 28th @ NC State

UNC’s Strength:

The overall numbers were not that great, but the defense has plenty of potential. Linebacker Mark Paschal and safety Trimane Goddard are the only two losses from the starting lineup and the experienced group that is left is quite athletic. It was the lack of pressure on the opposing quarterback that caused the biggest problem. With ends E.J. Wilson and Robert Quinn returning and tackles Marvin Austin and Cam Thomas also back, the Tar Heels front four could turn into a dominating unit. Linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter are full of potential and the secondary, despite the absence of Goddard who picked off seven passes during his senior campaign, is pretty experienced and could be great if the front four can get into the opposing backfield.

North Carolina’s Weakness:

It is on the other side of the ball where there could be some major problems. Quarterback T.J. Yates started six games last year and proved to be a relatively consistent passer. He completed 60 percent of his passes and only threw four interceptions. However, that was when he was passing to Hakeem Nicks, Brooks Foster and Brandon Tate. Those three are now gone and Yates must find some new targets. Coach Jones had a great recruiting class this year and there could be a ton of talented freshmen making a big impact. The passing attack should be halfway decent, but the ground game could be a different story. Shaun Draughn is a decent back, but North Carolina’s rushing attack was nothing special last year and it will not get any better this year without guard Calvin Darity and tackle Garrett Reynolds paving the way.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Tar Heels:

The offense is full of potential. Can Yates take the next step? Can the Tar Heels find a few wide receivers who can at least help replace Nicks, Tate and Foster? If so, this is a team that can be a big surprise and do more than just win a bowl game. North Carolina could win the Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal division if they can pull off a couple quality wins over teams like Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. Maybe all of that will not happen this year, but it very well could. And if it does not happen now, it might not take too long before UNC is a traditional ACC powerhouse.

North Carolina Betting Odds

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