New Mexico Lobos 2009 Football Betting Preview

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New Mexico 2008 Record: (4-8, 2-6)
New Mexico 2008 Bowl: none
New Mexico Coach: Mike Locksley (First year at New Mexico, 0-0 overall)
New Mexico Offensive Coordinator: Darrell Dickey
New Mexico Defensive Coordinator: George Barlow
New Mexico Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: James Wright, RB, 348 yards
• Passing: Brad Gruner, QB, 1,037 yards
• Receiving: Chris Hernandez, WR, 428 yards
• Tackles: Clint McPeek, LB, 103
• Sacks: Ian Clark, S, 4.0
• Interceptions: Brett Kennedy, DT, 1; Clint McPeek, LB, 1; Frankie Solomon, S, 1

Notable New Mexico Returning Players: K James Aho, OT Byron Bell, WR Roland Bruno, C Erik Cook, P Adam Miller, QB Donovan Porterie, WR Michael Scarlett, G Joshua Taufalele

New Mexico Key Losses: LB Zach Arnett, DE Kevin Balogun, DT Wesley Beck, LB Herbert Felder, RB Rodney Ferguson, OT Sylvester Hatten, S Blake Ligon, DE Jeremiah Lovato, TE Chris Mark, CB Glover Quin, G Matt Streid, CB DeAndre Wright

New Mexico might have been the most disappointing team in the entire conference last season. I predicted the Lobos to follow up a solid 9-4 season in 2007 with a 5-3 conference record and another trip to a bowl game but instead they fell flat on their face to the tune of 2-6 in conference a 4-8 record overall. That was enough to earn longtime head coach Rocky Long a pink slip and former Illinois offensive coordinator/super recruiter Mike Locksley was hired to turn the team around. However, Locksley inherits a league-low nine returning starters and a tough schedule, making it unlikely that he’ll immediately have a cure for all of the Lobos’ ailments.

The offense is a very big question mark despite the return of six starters. Locksley’s offenses were known for their ability to spread the field and take advantage of a quarterback’s mobility. However, the Lobos ran a very run heavy offense last fall and passed for only three touchdowns! I expect the change from an option attack means that Locksley’s two freshmen recruits are the most likely candidates to open the season on offense and any time you’re starting a true freshman at quarterback there are going to be some serious growing pains. Furthermore, the receiving corps is going to have to bear a much bigger load of the offense this fall and juniors Bryant Williams (36 catches) and Chris Hernandez (33 catches) are going to have to step their game up big time. The running game appears to be the better option to move the football in the early going. Sophomore James Wright was only the 3 rd string tailback last year but impressed as he ran for 348 yards and 2 touchdowns. His first year as the starter should show significant improvement running behind a solid offensive line led by senior center Eric Cook, who was a 2 nd team All-MWC choice last fall. However, the offense is largely unproven at the skill positions and the prospect of starting a true freshman at quarterback is daunting. Let’s face it; few freshmen can be as effective as Terrelle Pryor at Ohio State or Robert Griffin at Baylor were last season. The Lobos only averaged 21 points per game in 2008 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them have trouble reaching that total this fall as they transition to a completely new offensive scheme.

The Lobo defense was quite good last season. However, the departure of the defensively oriented Long and eight starters doesn’t bode well for 2009. The entire defensive line needs replaced and sophomore Jaymar Latchison appears to be the best of the group after playing well in limited action last year, though he’s primarily a pass rusher. At linebacker, only senior middle linebacker Clint McPeek, who notched 103 tackles in 2008 to earn 2 nd team All-MWC honors, is back and he will likely be flanked by a pair of underclassmen. That’s not a good sign. Finally, the secondary returns two starters, senior safeties Ian Clark and Frankie Solomon. Neither flashed much big play potential last season and this secondary will take a big step back after both of their starting cornerbacks were taken in April’s NFL draft. Overall, I expect a big step back on defense in Locksley’s first year and New Mexico will be very vulnerable against the run.

The schedule, as I mentioned above, is also very tough. The non-conference schedule features trips to Texas A&M and Texas Tech along with difficult home games against Tulsa and rival New Mexico State, though the Lobos have won six straight against the Aggies. The conference schedule will also be hard, including road trips to Wyoming, Utah and TCU. Overall, I expect that there will be a lot of struggles adapting to new schemes on both sides of the ball and the looming specter of a true freshman starting quarterback should scare most Lobo fans. I expect some growing pains on offense until Locksley can properly recruit for his system and the defense is going to take a step back without Long in charge. If New Mexico matches last season’s four win total, I will be very surprised.

New Mexico Big Games: Sept. 26th vs. New Mexico State, Oct. 10th @ Wyoming, Oct. 31st @ San Diego State, Nov. 21st vs. Colorado State

New Mexico’s Strength:

The offense lost running back Rodney Ferguson, who tallied 1,105 yards and 13 touchdowns, but the ground game should still be strong thanks to a bevy of talented offensive linemen. Tackle Sylvester Hatten and guard Matt Streid are gone, but Bryon Bell had a promising freshman campaign and can only get better and center Erik Cook is an experienced senior who will be the leader of the unit. Now New Mexico just has to find a capable runner to get through all the gaps created by the line. James Wright rushed for 348 yards as a freshman and could be the player who can actually fill the gap left behind by Ferguson. If the ground game, which ranked 16 th in the nation last year, can stay near that mark, the Lobos offense will be in good shape.

New Mexico’s Weakness:

The offense will be in better shape if a quarterback can be found. Donovan Porterie is the preferred option, but he is still recovering for a knee injury. And in his limited action a year ago, Porterie threw absolutely no touchdowns and five interceptions. Brad Gruner filled in relatively well during Porterie’s absence, but he only completed 53.8 percent of his passes and threw for three touchdowns. If Poterie is not ready to learn the new offense in time, Tate Smith will get an opportunity to compete with Gruner for the starting gig. The defense could be in worse shape. Linebacker Clint McPeek is a great player who deserves more credit than he gets, but the defense as a whole only returns three starters. Luckily, two of those players, Ian Clark and Frankie Solomon are in the secondary and that should help out a team that gave up over 213 yards per game in the air, but the front line needs to be completely replaced.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Lobos:

So far Coach Locksley is doing everything right, but that may not result in too many victories during the 2009 campaign. If the team can find a quarterback and the offensive line can make inexperienced running backs look a little like Ferguson, then the offense will be difficult to stop. However, the inexperienced defense has few playmakers and somebody has to step up and get into the backfield so the opposition does not have all day to pick apart the defense.

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