Kentucky Wildcats 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Kentucky 2008 Record: (7-6, 2-6)
Kentucky 2008 Bowl: Liberty Bowl vs. East Carolina (W 25-19)
Kentucky Coach: Rich Brooks (32-41 at Kentucky, 123-150-4 overall)
Kentucky Offensive Coordinator: Randy Sanders
Kentucky Defensive Coordinator: Steve Brown
Kentucky Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Randall Cobb, WR, 316 yards
• Passing: Mike Hartline, QB, 1,666 yards
• Receiving: Alfonso Smith, RB, 313 yards
• Tackles: Micah Johnson, LB, 93
• Sacks: Jeremy Jarmon, DE, 4.5
• Interceptions: Trevard Lindley, CB, 4

Notable Kentucky Returning Players: WR E.J. Adams, S Ashton Cobb, TE T.C. Drake, G Zipp Duncan, C Jorge Gonzalez, OT Justin Jeffries, WR Kyrus Lanxter, DT Corey Peters

Kentucky Key Losses: G Jess Beets, RB Tony Dixon, DE Ventrell Jenkins, CB David Jones, LB Braxton Kelley, WR Dicky Lyons, S Marcus McClinton, DT Myron Pryor, OT Garry Williams, LB Johnny Williams

The past three seasons have been among the most successful at Kentucky since Bear Bryant was in charge nearly half of a century ago. The Wildcats have won three consecutive bowl games and even entered the national rankings two years ago. However, 2008 was a fairly tough year in Lexington as the Wildcats finished the regular season 6-6 and had a lot of trouble fielding a decent offensive attack. With a lot of experience gone, can the Wildcats find a way to keep their bowl streak alive?

The offense really struggled last fall to replace former quarterback Andre Woodson, averaging nearly 120 less pass yards per game and playing multiple quarterbacks. Junior Mike Hartline is the guy in charge this fall as sophomore backup Randall Cobb was switched to receiver full time to take advantage of his athleticism. However, Hartline was fairly ineffective and blamed his teammates at times when the offense struggled, so pardon me if I’m not filled with much confidence knowing he’ll be under center. Cobb immediately becomes his #1 target after catching 21 passes in a part time role last fall. However, I really don’t have much faith in any of his fellow receivers and I don’t expect much out of the Kentucky passing game with Hartline in charge.

The running game was not very strong in 2008 and Cobb is also the team’s leading returning rusher. Behind him, senior Alfonso Smith should be a contributor but he only rushed for 300 yards last season. Kentucky’s offensive line just doesn’t inspire much confidence for me despite having three senior starters back. I know they have a lot of experience but I really wasn’t very impressed with them last fall. Simply put, I think Kentucky was stupid to move Cobb to receiver when he appeared to have a lot of upside and impressed at times with his athleticism. I know he wasn’t the most polished passer but he led the Wildcats to 38 points in a near-upset of Georgia as a true freshman and his passing skills were only going to improve. I think Kentucky will regret moving him and I won’t be surprised in the least when he ends back up at quarterback because he’s the best option to move their offense. Expect the Wildcats to regress until the switch is made and this could be one of the league’s weakest units.

Defensively, Kentucky was fairly strong last fall as they allowed only 21.5 points per game. However, four of their top five tacklers are gone and there will be some big holes to fill. The best defensive lineman is senior Jeremy Jarmon, who has had 13 sacks in the past two years. I actually like the depth up front and I think that the Wildcats could repeat last year’s solid showing against the run. The return of 2008 1 st team All-SEC middle linebacker Micah Johnson also helps, though he is the only returnee at his position and there is little proven talent around him.

The secondary features senior cornerback Trevard Lindley, who was a 2nd team All-American last fall. He’ll lock down half of the field for the Wildcats this fall. Unfortunately, he’s the only returning starter and I fully expect opposing teams to avoid throwing at him. I think that the Wildcats are going to regress defensively this fall because teams are going to be able to throw the ball much more easily against them. Furthermore, their front seven is strong but not spectacular. Don’t expect a repeat of last year’s strong showing.

The schedule is an interesting mix. The Wildcats have only four road games and play the expected two bottom feeders in the West. Furthermore, their only major out of conference opponent is rival Louisville, who isn’t expected to field a strong team this fall. The schedule itself is manageable despite only having two home SEC East games, especially if the Wildcats can win their 3rd consecutive game over the ‘Ville.

Overall, I’m going to predict that the Wildcats’ run of postseason appearances ends this season. I think they made a big mistake moving the promising Cobb into a less important position and leaving the keys to the offense in the less capable hands of Hartline. Furthermore, I think that their strong defensive numbers last fall were the byproduct of a down offensive year in the conference and I don’t expect them to repeat them. Even with a weak out of conference schedule, I think that the Wildcats’ ceiling in the regular season is a 6-6 finish. With an SEC opening slate of Florida and Alabama at home followed by back to back road trips to South Carolina and Auburn, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Wildcats start 0-4 in SEC play. The bowl streak ends this year unless the Wildcats exceed my expectations on offense.

Kentucky Big Games: Sept. 19th vs. Louisville, Sept. 26th vs. Florida, Oct. 3rd vs. Alabama, Oct. 10th @ South Carolina, Oct. 17th @ Auburn, Nov. 14th @ Vanderbilt, Nov. 21st @ Georgia, Nov. 28th vs. Tennessee

Kentucky’s Strength:

Most of the offense is back and that should be a good thing. Right? The offensive line takes the biggest hit, losing tackle Garry Williams, but it was also the line that made the offense at least halfway decent last season. With center Jorge Gonzalez and Zipp Duncan moving over to the left tackle spot after starting 26 straight games at guard, the Wildcats line will once again be a dominating force. Tailbacks Alfonso Smith and Moncell Allen are a dangerous one-two duo who can also do some damage catching the ball. Speaking of catching the ball, that is what Randall Cobb should be doing most of the time. However, the dynamic playmaker is also the team’s top returning rusher and spent a lot of time under center last season. Ideally Cobb will only be playing quarterback to mix things up, but he very well could end up spending games at a time as the signal caller.

Kentucky’s Weakness:

That is because Mike Hartline has not been an efficient quarterback. Now that he is an upperclassman Hartline has to be much more effective or Cobb, or even one of a couple of talented freshmen, will take over his job. The defense was pretty good last year, but that was mostly the frontline and now they have to find a way to replace tackle Myron Pryor and end Ventrell Jenkins. The secondary returns Trevard Lindley, who will be one of the best corners in the nation this year, and safety Ashton Cobb, but their pass defense was not that spectacular to begin with considering the SEC did not sport many teams that were great at passing the ball.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Wildcats:

The two most important things to keep an eye on are the defensive line and the quarterback situations. The Wildcats tallied nearly 2.5 sacks per game last season and their ability to get into the opponents backfield really made the entire defense much better. If they do not get into the backfield this year the defense could be exposed. And that puts the pressure on the offense and it remains to be seen if Hartline can live up to that pressure.

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