Iowa State Cyclones 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Iowa State 2008 Record: (2-10, 0-8 )
Iowa State 2008 Bowl: none
Iowa State Coach: Paul Rhoads (First Season at Iowa State, 0-0 overall)
Iowa State Offensive Coordinator: Tom Herman
Iowa State Defensive Coordinator: Wally Burnham
Iowa State Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Alexander Robinson, RB, 703 yards
• Passing: Austen Arnaud, QB, 2,792 yards
• Receiving: Darius Darks, WR, 477 yards
• Tackles: James Smith, S, 85
• Sacks: Christopher Lyle, DE, 5.0
• Interceptions: Fred Garrin, LB, 2; Leonard Johnson, CB, 2

Notable Iowa State Returning Players: C Alex Alvarez, TE Derrick Catlett, TE Collin Franklin, DT Nate Frere, WR Marquis Hamilton, OT Matt Hulbert, WR Houston Jones, G Ben Lamaak, DE Rashawn Parker, LB Jesse Smith, G Reggie Stephens

Iowa State Key Losses: LB Michael Bibbs, OT Doug Dedrick, S Brandon Hunley, C Brandon Johnson, RB Jason Scales, CB Chris Singleton, WR R.J. Sumrall, DE Kurtis Taylor

The last three seasons haven’t been pretty in Cyclone country. ISU has only won nine games during that time span and they enter this fall with their 3 rd different head coach! Former boss Gene Chizik was lured away to Auburn despite a two year record of 5-19 and the Cyclones had to scramble to hire former Auburn assistant Paul Rhoads in his stead. Rhoads has proven to be an excellent defensive coordinator in stops at Pitt and Auburn and will look to turn around Iowa State in his first opportunity as a head coach. He steps into a decent situation despite the Cyclones’ 2-10 record in 2008 and I would expect some quick improvement.

The offense is where most Cyclone fans hold their hopes for a successful season. After a strong performance in 2008 compared to their usual standards, ISU returns nine starters, including junior quarterback Austen Arnaud. Arnaud threw for nearly 2,800 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season while also contributing 400 rush yards and 5 touchdowns! While ISU must replace 2008’s top receiver, they are lucky to have sophomore Darius Darks, who was impressive as a true freshman last year and caught 49 passes for 477 yards and a touchdown. Expect a big year from him in 2009.

At tailback, senior Alex Robinson was the top rusher in 2008, with over 700 yards and 6 touchdowns. He should see the majority of the carries, though sophomore Florida transfer Bo Williams should also contribute. They’ll run behind a veteran offensive line which brings back four starters and should be fairly productive. I think that Iowa State has the potential to produce improved numbers on offense and Arnaud is a solid quarterback. However, in a league full of powerful offenses, the Cyclones remain confined in the bottom half.

The biggest need for improvement is on defense, where ISU tied as the conference’s 2nd most porous in 2008 with Kansas State. Rhoads’ defensive acumen will be needed to turn around this group after they allowed nearly 280 yards per game through the air. Up front, senior tackle Nate Frere is a solid contributor who made 26 tackles, including three sacks, in 2008. Unfortunately, he’s the best player on a line which allowed nearly 180 years per game on the ground last season and that just won’t cut it in the Big XII. At linebacker, seniors Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin were the team’s second and third leading tacklers in 2008, combining for 147 stops. Both should once more provide steady production but playing behind a weak line won’t help and I think that the Cyclones will struggle against the run once more.

In the secondary, senior James Smith was the team’s top tackler last fall and will be counted on to continue his strong play. Sophomore cornerback Leonard Johnson made 47 tackles and picked off two passes as a true freshman and has the potential to be a star. I think that the Cyclones could be improved against the pass with these two anchoring their secondary this season. However, this is still one of the conference’s weakest defenses and I wouldn’t be surprised if they allowed the most points in the conference for the 2nd consecutive season.

The schedule is also going to make things tough as a neutral site game against KSU gives the Cyclones only three home conference games! Considering that ISU has lost every road game since late 2005, that’s a daunting task. To make matters worse, Oklahoma State, improved Baylor and rising Colorado are their three home dates! The non-conference schedule is nowhere near as tough, highlighted as usual by their bitter grudge match against Iowa. Despite the difficult conference path, the non-conference portion should provide the Cyclones with a legitimate opportunity to rack up some wins.

Overall, it will be tough for Iowa State to turn things around immediately in Big XII play. While I think that ISU has a good offensive unit, they do play in the country’s most powerful offensive league and I’m afraid that the Cyclones don’t measure up to most of the league’s elite units. I also think that their defense will have a lot of trouble slowing down the run and that means opposing teams will score a lot of points. However, I think that Rhoads will definitely produce an improved team in his first season. Remember, Chizik lost some really bad games to teams like Toledo, Kent State, UNLV and Northern Iowa in his two years and I really think that Rhoads will at least start to take care of business against weaker teams. While I don’t expect much from this team in Big XII play, I think that Iowa State could easily double their win total from last season and that would be a great start to Rhoads’ tenure in Ames.

Iowa State Big Games: Sept. 12th vs. Iowa, Oct. 3rd vs. KSU (Kansas City), Oct. 17th vs. Baylor, Oct. 31st @ Texas A&M, Nov. 14th vs. Colorado, Nov. 21st @ Mizzou

Iowa State’s Strength:

Coach Chizik was building up the offense and this is still a relatively young group. That means they at least have potential. Quarterback Austen Arnaud is a decent quarterback and a better playmaker. He threw for 15 touchdowns last year and rushed for five more. Now that he is an upperclassman the pressure will be on for him to truly become the leader of this offense. And the implantation of a spread offense should fit right into his skill set. His top receiving threat, R.J. Sumrall, is gone, but Darius Darks and Houston Jones are both capable receivers. The running game also has potential with the return of Alexander Robinson who rushed for 703 yards as a sophomore. The offensive line did a surprisingly good job last year for a unit that started a trio of underclassmen. This year they should be better.

Iowa State’s Weakness:

Coach Rhoads is a defensive guy and his top priority will be shoring up a defense that was tenth or worse in the conference in just about every major statistical category. The plan is to find a way to generate more of a pass rush so the opposing quarterbacks do not have all day to pick apart Iowa State’s secondary. Sacks were rare for ISU last season and the staff hopes that senior ends Rashawn Parker and Christopher Lyle can pick up their production. Defensive tackle Nate Frere is also an option to get into the backfield. Do not be surprised if there is more blitzing from experienced linebackers Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin this year if the front four can not do it on their own.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Cyclones:

Free safety James Smith is the leader of the secondary and Zac Sandvig is a capable player who should do fine stepping into the strong safety role. The pass defense was so bad last year in part due to the fact that two freshmen were spending most of the time on the corners. It would be extremely beneficial if Leonard Johnson and Ter’ran Benton were helped out by a consistent pass rush, but if those two can use their experience as freshmen and turn into quality corners as sophomores, Iowa State could pull off a surprise or two in the fall.

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