Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Georgia Tech 2008 Record: (9-4, 5-3)
Georgia Tech 2008 Bowl: Chick-fil-A Bowl vs. LSU(L 3-38 )
Georgia Tech Coach: Paul Johnson (9-4 at Georgia Tech, 116-43 overall)
Georgia Tech Offensive Coordinator: Paul Johnson
Georgia Tech Defensive Coordinator: Dave Wommack
Georgia Tech Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, 1,395 yards
• Passing: Josh Nesbitt, QB, 808 yards
• Receiving: Demaryius Thomas, WR, 627 yards
• Tackles: Morgan Burnett, S, 93
• Sacks: Derrick Morgan, DE, 7.0
• Interceptions: Morgan Burnett, S, 7

Notable Georgia Tech Returning Players: LB Anthony Barnes, K/P Scott Blair, CB Mario Butler, RB Lucas Cox, LB Sedric Griffin, G Cord Howard, LB Kyle Jackson, RB Roddy Jones, WR Tyler Melton, S Dominique Reese, CB Rashaad Reid, C Dan Voss

Georgia Tech Key Losses: OT David Brown, OT Andrew Gardner, DE Michael Johnson, DT Darryl Richard, DT Vance Walker, CB Jabi Word-Daniels

That’s right, I have a team that went 9-4 last year with 18 returning starters predicted to go 5-3 in conference play and finish 4th in the division! That’s how strong the ACC Coastal is this fall! Head coach Paul Johnson’s innovative offense led a major turnaround for the Jackets in 2008, including their first victory over archrival Georgia since 2001. Tech averaged nearly 275 rush yards per game and finished with an identical record to division champion Virginia Tech. However, the Jackets were blown out in their bowl game against LSU, who had a month to prepare for Johnson’s version of the option. Was last year a fluke because of their uncommon offense or does Georgia Tech have staying power as a contender in the ACC?

The big story last fall was how dominant Georgia Tech’s running game was in Johnson’s first year. Granted, it definitely caught teams off guard but as the season went on the Jackets became almost too one dimensional, finishing with a measly 65 passing yards in their final two regular season games. Despite churning out so much yardage on the ground, the Jackets actually averaged two points per game less than the previous year! So, there is still a lot of work to do, especially since the element of surprise is gone on offense now that there is a year’s worth of video for opposing coaches to break down. Junior tailback Jonathan Dwyer was the biggest beneficiary of Johnson’s run happy scheme as he became the 2008 ACC Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1,395 yards and 12 touchdowns. Along with quarterback Josh Nesbitt (693 yards, 7 TDs) and outside threat Roddy Jones (690 yards, 4 touchdowns), Dwyer spearheaded the best rushing attack in America. With four linemen back up front, the Jackets should once more be vicious on the ground. However, teams are going to be more prepared for the option this fall (LSU held the Jackets to 3 points and half of their season rushing average with time to prepare in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl) so there will have to be a semblance of a passing attack. Junior Demaryius Thomas was the team’s entire receiving game last fall as his 39 catches were five times more than the team’s 2nd leading receiver and his 627 yards through the air tripled anyone else’s production! Thus, Nesbitt is going to have to learn to integrate the pass into Tech’s game AND find another receiving option because Thomas is going to face a lot of double and triple coverage. However, the other major concern is that Nesbitt, who is by far the Yellow Jackets’ best choice to run the option, was hurt a lot last season and I will be surprised if he starts every game this fall. The key to Tech becoming a truly dangerous offense is the ability to integrate a passing attack and I am going to have to see it happen to believe it. That all said, Tech should still outscore last year’s team which only put up 24 points per game and this will once more be the ACC’s top rushing team.

The defense was the unsung hero last fall, allowing 20 points per game and sacking the quarterback 34 times. Even better, the entire back seven returns! However, only one starter is back on the defensive line, which lost three players to the NFL draft, including defensive end Michael Johnson, who was a 1 st team All-American and was such an athletic freak that he was a gunner on the punt team! Junior Derrick Morgan will be relied to lead a young unit after racking up 51 tackles and 7 sacks last year. Despite Morgan’s presence, the line is my biggest concern on Tech’s entire team. The linebackers are a good group but I think they benefited from such strong line play last season. It is much tougher to make plays when you don’t have the big guys up front occupying blockers and I think that they will have trouble living up to last year’s results playing behind a questionable line. The strength of this defense is the secondary, where junior safety Morgan Burnett led the team in tackles with 93 and interceptions with 7! The secondary is so good that sophomore Cooper Taylor was the team’s 2nd leading tackler last year despite playing primarily in nickel situations. Expect Tech to have an excellent pass defense this season. However, I am still concerned up front and the best news with the new set of starters is that they’ll have to battle against their own vicious rush offense in fall camp and that should help toughen them up. I think Tech will struggle early against the run and that’s not a good thing with their tough opening schedule.

Much like the Miami Hurricanes, Tech has a very tough opening stretch. After a D-1AA warm up to begin the season, they face Clemson and Miami on back to back Thursday nights before hosting North Carolina. The season doesn’t let up after that as they travel to Mississippi State and Florida State in back to back weeks before hosting Virginia Tech! Thus, the issue of the Yellow Jackets contenting in the division will be decided by mid-October. Their non-conference schedule features three SEC teams, highlighted by their season-ending clash against archrival Georgia, who will be out for blood after last season’s upset, do they will have to earn every win. Overall, I think that this will be very telling year in Atlanta as it will be a referendum on the lasting effectiveness of Johnson’s system. Will teams be better prepared or is Johnson being honest when he says that he established less than half of his playbook last fall? Another big factor is that Tech played one of the highest numbers of freshmen in America last year. Will all that experience begin to show on the field? I think that the combination of replacing 3 NFL players on the defensive line and a brutal opening schedule will preclude the Jackets from competing for the division title and they will be hard-pressed to match last season’s nine win total.

Georgia Tech Big Games: Sept. 10th vs. Clemson, Sept. 17th @ Miami, Sept. 26th vs. UNC, Oct. 10th @ FSU, Oct. 17th vs. Virginia Tech, Nov. 28th vs. Georgia

Georgia Tech’s Strength:

The Yellow Jackets ended the season ranked fourth in the nation in rushing offense. Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy Jones form a superb duo in the backfield and it is nearly impossible to stop both of them. Even junior Lucas Cox is a threat to break a long run. But just about anybody who touches the ball is a threat to run for a long time in Georgia Tech’s offense. The team averaged over 5.5 yards per carry and what makes that even more impressive is the fact that everybody knows that they are going to run. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt had some trouble running the option at times, but he is not a bad rusher. But if he makes poor decisions, Jaybo Shaw will see plenty of playing time.

Georgia Tech’s Weakness:

The Yellow Jackets return eight players to their defense, but the losses are big ones. Defensive end Michael Johnson was sometimes accused of being unproductive in college, but he managed to tally 17.5 tackles-for-loss and 9.0 sacks on the season. He will certainly be missed, but the bigger issue is that defensive tackles Darryl Richard and Vance Walker are also gone. The strength of the Ramblin’ Wreck’s defense was the front line and now that advantage is almost completely gone. Derrick Morgan tallied seven sacks last year, but will he be as effective without the opposition worrying about Johnson on the other side? He probably will not unless somebody else can step up and at least be a threat to get into the backfield.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Yellow Jackets:

And if the front four are not getting pressure on the quarterback, what happens to the secondary? Three of the four starters return, including safety Morgan Burnett. Burnett led the team in tackles and interceptions and has to be the leader of this defense. With Anthony Barnes, Sedric Griffin and Kyle Jackson returning to the linebacker corps, the back seven should be in good shape, but that will depend on how well the front four gets into the backfield. Georgia Tech does return more starters than any other team in the conference and that year of experience in the system will do wonders. That leaves the Yellow Jackets a team that should compete for an ACC title.

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