Florida International Golden Panthers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Florida-International 2008 Record: (5-7, 3-4)
Florida-International 2008 Bowl: none
Florida-International Coach: Mario Cristobal (6-18 at Florida International, 6-18 overall)
Florida-International Offensive Coordinator: Bill Legg
Florida-International Defensive Coordinator: Phillip Galiano
Florida-International Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Darriet Perry, RB, 173 yards
• Passing: Paul McCall, QB, 2,332 yards
• Receiving: T.Y. Hilton, WR, 1,013 yards
• Tackles: Scott Bryant, LB, 89
• Sacks: Toronto Smith, LB, 2.5
• Interceptions: Anthony Gaitor, CB, 5

Notable Florida-International Returning Players: OT Joe Alajajian, G Mario Caraballo, LB Tyler Clawson, WR Greg Ellingson, G Andy Leavine, OT Ula Matavao, WR Junior Mertile, S Ashlyn Parker, K Dustin Rivest, C Brad Serini, DE Armond Willis

Key Losses for FIU: DT Dan Chacreton, LB Mike Dominguez, G Dustin Gibson, LB Ryan Martinez, CB Robert Mitchell, RB A’mod Ned, DE Quentin Newman, DT Jarvis Penerton, RB Julian Reams

The Panthers showed enormous improvement last season as they boasted a four game jump in their win total to finish with a school-record 5 wins. Remember, FIU has only played D-1A football for four years so a 5 win season was a big achievement in Head Coach Mario Cristobal’s 2 nd season. His 3 rd season could be just as promising as 16 starters are back hoping to make a run at the school’s first 6 win campaign.

The Panthers’ pass-heavy offensive attack returns a whopping ten starters. In fact, their only new starter will be at the tailback position, where last year’s leading rusher had an underwhelming 481 yards. Senior quarterback Paul McCall will look to build upon a season where he threw for over 2,300 yards and 15 touchdowns against only 9 interceptions. His receivers will be young but they have a lot of experience and will be led by sophomore Ty Hilton, whose 41 catches for 1013 yards (24.7 yards per catch!) and seven touchdowns earned him 1 st team All-SBC honors as a wide receiver and his 1,000 return yards and 2 touchdowns earned him 1 st team All-SBC honors as both a kick and punt returner! Can he avoid a sophomore slump? The good news continues for FIU as they return their entire starting offensive line from last year, all of whom are upperclassmen. However, this group also blocked for an offense which averaged the worst yards per play in school history so I’m still not sold on their talent. FIU should have a solid offense after averaging just under 25 points per game last year but I’m not bullish on their chances at improving much beyond that, especially if their running game remains as ineffective as the 2008 attack.

Defensively, the Panthers’ strength will come in the back seven of their defense, where five starters return. Senior linebacker Scott Bryant was the team’s leading tackler last fall and will be counted on again to lead one of the Sun Belt’s stronger linebacking corps. In the secondary, junior cornerback Anthony Gaitor earned 1 st team All-Sun Belt honors last fall after snaring a team-high 5 interceptions. Along with a solid safety pairing, Gaitor should be the foundation of a pass defense which improved last year and should do so again in 2009. The big concern for FIU will be up front against the run. The defensive line returns only one starter and the entire FIU team only mustered a paltry 18 sacks in 2008 while allowing opponents to rush for four yards a carry. I have to expect that they’ll have trouble generating a pass rush with their inexperience up front and that is a huge concern. The FIU defense seems to have a good amount of talent but this group probably won’t be much different from last year’s team which allowed opponents to score over 28 points per game.

The schedule certainly won’t be easy either. The Panthers play three BCS conference opponents in road games, including 2008 SEC Division winners Florida and Alabama. The conference schedule’s most winnable games are all on the road and include a stretch where four out of six games are away from home. Factor in FIU’s 2-5 record last fall away from FIU Stadium and that’s another big concern. On top of that, the Panthers don’t appear that they’ll be able to run the ball or prevent their opponents from doing so. Overall, that adds up to another tough year and I do not expect the Panthers to have their first winning season in school history this fall.

Florida-International Big Games: Oct. 3rd @ UL-Monroe, Oct. 10th @ WKU, Oct. 31st vs. Louisiana, Dec. 5th vs. FAU

Florida International’s Strength:

Quarterback Paul McCall is not the most efficient quarterback in the Sun Belt conference, but he does have a decent arm and can make plays. Receiver T.Y. Hilton caught 41 passes for 1,013 yards and seven touchdowns. That is a lot of yards for just 41 catches. Hilton is a big play receiver and he will have plenty more big plays in 2009. With fellow receivers Greg Ellingson and Junior Mertile back and tight end Dudley LaPorte entering the mix after transferring in from Utah, the passing game should be in the top half of the conference. It was the ground game that slowed the offense in 2008 and now Julian Reams and A’mod Ned are gone. That leaves the pressure on sophomore Darriet Perry who only played in two games as a freshman, but tallied 173 yards and two touchdowns. The offensive line gave up a ton of sacks, but they do return just about everybody. They will have to keep McCall on his feet and pave the way for Perry if FIU has dreams of bowling.

Florida International’s Weakness:

The defense was the definition of average in 2008. They ranked fourth in rush and pass defense in the conference and, not surprisingly, fourth in total defense as well. But now some key pieces are gone and the Golden Panthers might not have the players to fill the holes. The front four has some, literally, big shoes to fill. Tackles Dan Chacreton and Jarvis Penerton might not have been the best run stoppers in the league, but they were experienced players. Senior Jonas Murrell and his 6-2, 340 pound frame can certainly fill those shoes, but will they be as productive as Chacreton and Penerton? The secondary has junior cornerback Anthony Gaitor to build around, but must replace everybody else.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Golden Panthers:

The strength of the defense is in the middle with linebacker Scott Bryant. The 5-10 senior led the team in tackles and added 7.5 tackles-for-loss. It is Tyler Clawson who is in the middle of the defense and he is back for his senior season. The linebackers will be the strength of the defense, but can Bryant carry this defense? If he can, Florida International could win the six games they need to be bowl eligible.

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