Duke Blue Devils 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Duke 2008 Record: (4-8, 1-7)
Duke 2008 Bowl: none
Duke Coach: David Cutcliffe (4-8 at Duke, 48-37 overall)
Duke Offensive Coordinator: Matt Luke
Duke Defensive Coordinator: Marion Hobby
Duke Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jay Hollingsworth, RB, 399 yards
• Passing: Thaddeus Lewis, QB, 2,171 yards
• Receiving: Johnny Williams, WR, 327 yards
• Tackles: Vincent Rey, LB, 109
• Sacks: Vince Oghobaase, DT, 6.0
• Interceptions: Matt Daniels, S, 1; Catron Gainey, S, 1; Vincent Rey, LB, 1; Chris Rwabukamba, CB, 1; Leon Wright, CB, 1

Notable Duke Returning Players: G Kyle Hill, TE Brett Huffman, P Kevin Jones, K Nick Maggio, C Bryan Morgan, DE Ayanga Okpokowuruk

Duke Key Losses: DE Greg Akinbiyi, S Adrian Aye-Darko, OT Cameron Goldberg, RB Clifford Harris, LB Marcus Jones, DT Clifford Respress, WR Eron Riley, OT Fred Roland, LB Michael Tauiliili, CB Glenn Williams

David Cutcliffe’s first season in Durham produced a 4-8 record. While that wouldn’t be impressive in most places, it matched Duke’s win total from the last four seasons COMBINED! Cutcliffe had five straight winning seasons as Ole Miss’ head boss before his first losing season somehow cost him his job, so he knows how to turn around a program. Unfortunately, it is going to take more than a year’s worth of recruiting and coaching to fix a team that won a lawsuit decision in 2008 after canceling a series with Louisville by claiming that they were so terrible that ANY opponent would be an upgrade and the judge agreed based on their recent body of work! That’s a true story, look it up! With that in mind, there will be plenty of patience for the new head coach in Durham. Can Cutcliffe’s team continue to make progress this fall?

The offense has one huge highlight: Senior quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, who was a 2 nd team All-ACC choice after throwing for a 62 percent completion rate and 15 touchdowns against only 6 picks. Unfortunately, Lewis might be the only bright spot as there are question marks everywhere else. At tailback, highly touted true freshman Desmond Scott could earn the lion’s share of carries as no one on the Blue Devils ran for 400 yards last fall! The offensive line only brings back two starters after losing three 3 year starters and could start up to three underclassmen at one of the toughest positions for younger players to succeed at. The receivers are plentiful as seven players return with double digit catches from 2008 but no one had more than 350 yards or 2 touchdowns! Led by a group of sophomores, there is potential and I expect someone to emerge as a Cutcliffe offense with a great quarterback will always move the ball through the air. However, with so little proven talent surrounding Lewis, I can’t say much more than that I will be surprised if the Blue Devils top last season’s production.

The defense showed major improvements last fall, cutting ten points per game from 2007’s porous ‘defending’. The strength of this defense is up front, led by senior tackle Vince Oghobaase, who had 51 tackles and 6 sacks in 2008. Senior Linebacker Vincent Rey will also be a leader after making 109 tackles last year to earn 2nd team All-ACC honors. Along with senior defensive end Ayanga Okpokowuruk, there is the core of a decent run defense. The secondary does not inspire much confidence as most of the unit’s production came from now-departed players. In fact, senior safety Catron Gainey is the most productive returnee after making 66 tackles last fall. I’m not filled with confidence after getting a better look at this unit this spring, though there are plenty of young players available. However, Duke’s defense overall looks no better than last year’s unit and this is still a sub-par ACC group.

The schedule is perhaps the biggest reason for optimism in the early going. Outside of a trip to Kansas, the Blue Devils will be favored in all their non-conference games and their schedule has two D-1AA teams on the docket. Their ACC slate only has one brutal three week stretch late in the season and the Dukies could surprise some conference opponents who overlook them. However, I don’t expect to see a much improved team from last fall with a lot of turnover and little experience around their one star on offense. I think that Duke’s most realistic goal this season is to top last year’s four win total but I will be very surprised if they win enough games to be bowl eligible. However, the future appears far brighter than ever before with Cutcliffe in charge.

Duke Big Games: Oct. 3rd vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 24th vs. Maryland, Oct. 31st @ UVA, Nov. 7th @ UNC, Nov. 14th vs. Georgia Tech, Nov. 28th vs. Wake Forest

Duke’s Strength:

To many, defensive tackle Vince Oghobaase would have been a first day selection if he had opted to enter the NFL Draft. Duke’s rush defense was pretty bad last year, but having a player like Oghobaase in the middle of the line will definitely be helpful. Thaddeus Lewis might not be the best known quarterback in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but he is a quality, experienced signal caller. The 6-2 senior threw for 2,171 yards and 15 touchdowns last year and could be in for a big season. However, he lost his favorite target in Eron Riley. Riley caught 61 passes and nobody else on the team caught more than 30. Yet, despite that loss, the Blue Devils have a handful of capable receivers. Johnny Williams should be the main target, but Donovan Varner, Austin Kelly and Sheldon Bell have some experience and will help soften the loss of Riley. Tight end Brett Huffman is not a bad option either.

Duke’s Weakness:

The offensive line has always been a problem for Duke and now they have to move on without three starters. Center Bryan Morgan and guard Kyle Hill are a good duo to build around, but Coach Cutcliffe has to find a handful of quality linemen if this unit is going to turn into anything good. If the line continues its usual dire ways, the running game is in trouble. Jay Hollingsworth is back after rushing for a team high 399 yards, but one of the worst ground games in the nation will not get any better because of Hollingsworth’s experience. It will only get better if the offensive line actually creates some gaps.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Blue Devils:

Oghobaase is not the only quality defender back on the Duke sidelines. Linebacker Vincent Rey tallied 109 tackles on the season and will have to anchor the middle of the Blue Devils defense. If those two can help stop the run, the Duke defense will be better than it was last year. However, that is probably not going to be good enough to win six games and go to a bowl. The Blue Devils have not been to a bowl since 1994 and, even in an ACC where there are a lot of winnable games, this will probably not be the year in which that streak ends.

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