Baylor Bears 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Baylor 2008 Record: (4-8, 2-6)
Baylor 2008 Bowl: none
Baylor Coach: Art Briles (4-8 at Baylor, 38-36 overall)
Baylor Offensive Coordinator: Randy Clements and Philip Montgomery
Baylor Defensive Coordinator: Brian Norwood
Baylor Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Jay Finley, RB, 865 yards
• Passing: Robert Griffin, QB, 2,091 yards
• Receiving: Kendall Wright, WR, 649 yards
• Tackles: Joe Pawelek, LB, 128
• Sacks: Antonio Jones, LB, 3.0; Earl Patin, LB, 3.0
• Interceptions: Joe Pawelek, LB, 6

Notable Baylor Returning Players: G James Barnard, CB Antareis Bryan, DT Trey Bryant, WR David Gettis, LB Antonio Johnson, S Jordan Lake, C J.D. Walton, OT Danny Watkins, S Jeremy Williams

Baylor Key Losses: CB Dwain Crawford, DE Leon Freeman, OT Dan Gay, S Jake La Mar, DT Vincent Rhodes, OT Jason Smith, WR Thomas White

The Bears are historically one of the most futile BCS conference teams in the country and are currently stuck in a 15 year bowl-less run, which ties them with lowly Duke for the longest existing streak among the BCS conferences. However, things are looking brighter than any other point during that run as head coach Art Briles came in last season and turned around the entire attitude of the program. Briles’ second year will feature sixteen returning starters so could this be the season that Baylor finally gets off the schneid and returns to postseason play?

Baylor’s offense was the school’s best in a long time last season, thanks to super explosive sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin, who was one of the country’s most dynamic players as a true freshman. Griffin, who is a world class sprinter, ran for 840 yards and 13 touchdowns last season! However, he’s also a strong passer, having completed 60 percent of his passes in 2008 for over 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions. Most people know Ohio State’s Terrelle Pryor as the country’s best sophomore quarterback but Griffin could easily make the same claim. Baylor’s offense more than doubled its rushing total thanks to Griffin’s scrambling and junior Jay Finley’s running last year. Finley tacked on 865 yards and 7 touchdowns and should once more form a strong rushing duo with Griffin this fall.

Up front, three starters are back on the O-Line but they lose both tackles; superstar Jason Smith, the 2 nd overall pick in the NFL draft, and Dan Gay, a 3 year starter! Despite bringing in some talented junior college linemen, Baylor is going to take a step back on the line. Luckily for Griffin, fellow sophomore Kendall Wright is going to once more be his top target after reeling in 50 passes for 650 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. If some depth can form at wideout, Baylor will be very dangerous through the air. Overall, the Bears should only be better this season with another year of experience under Griffin’s belt. Despite losing both starting tackles, virtually everyone else is back and I wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor averaged over 30 points per game this fall.

Defensively, there was a huge turnaround last year as the Bears held opponents to more than a touchdown less per game compared to 2007! Baylor features two 1st team All-Big XII selections in senior linebacker Joe Pawelek, who made 128 tackles and caught 6 interceptions last fall and senior safety Jordan Lake, who was 2nd on the team with 97 stops and 3 picks. As only one starter is gone from a very veteran back seven, I fully expect the Bears to field a solid pass defense once more.

I have some misgivings up front as the two returning starters only combined for 51 tackles and a sack last year. Luckily, incoming Penn State transfer Phil Taylor should immediately occupy one of the tackle spots and at least two opposing linemen on every play. While he’ll definitely help the run defense, I’m just not sure where a pass rush is going to come from unless the Bears blitz. Despite my concern, I think that Baylor has a solid defense and should continue to improve this fall.

The schedule is going to make Briles’ run at a bowl very interesting. The non-conference season includes a trip to Wake Forest and a visit from UConn, so there is plenty of BCS opposition waiting for the Bears outside of the Big XII. Baylor has to go 3-1 outside of the Big XII if they want a chance at the postseason. In Big XII play, the Bears have a fairly favorable draw from the North as only Nebraska is expected to contend and the Cornhuskers will be coming to Waco for their matchup. Baylor also switched their season-ending clash with Texas Tech to Arlington and that leaves them with only two home division games. Their final three games are all against their in-state conference rivals, which means that they’ll likely have to defeat at least one of them to make a bowl game.

Baylor is going to be a tough football team for two reasons. The first is their defense, which should be a solid middle of the pack unit in the Big XII. The other is Griffin, who is one heck of a player. If he stays healthy, Baylor could surprise one of the more favored teams in the conference. Overall, the Bears seem primed to compete for a bowl game this season. If they can defeat one of their BCS non-conference opponents then I expect the bowl draught to end this year. Baylor won’t win more than six or seven games but that might be enough for the university to commission a statue for Briles, who has Baylor moving quickly into the realm of competitiveness in one of the toughest divisions in the country.

Baylor Big Games: Sept. 5th @ Wake Forest, Sept. 19th vs. UConn, Oct. 17th @ ISU, Oct. 24th vs. Ok St, Oct. 31st vs. Nebraska, Nov. 7th @ Mizzou, Nov. 14th vs. Texas, Nov. 21st @ Texas A&M, Nov. 28th vs. Texas Tech (Arlington)

Baylor’s Strength:

The youth movement is led by sophomore quarterback Robert Griffin. As a freshman last year he threw for over 2,000 yards and rushed for 843 more. In all he accounted for 28 total touchdowns and threw a measly three interceptions. And all of that was as a freshman. But Griffin will not be the only player on the team who has the ability to run for over 1,000 yards. Jay Finley tallied 865 yards on the ground as a sophomore and averaged a solid 5.8 yards per carry. With experienced receiving threats Kendall Wright, David Gettis and Ernest Smith to go along with youngsters like Lanear Sampson and Terrance Williams, the Bears offense could be a force to be reckoned with by the end of the 2009 campaign.

Baylor’s Weakness:

It was Leon Freeman who led the team with nine tackles-for-loss and 4.0 sacks. The frontline also loses tackle Vincent Rhodes and without those two it is difficult to tell where the pressure will come from. This is a team that ranked ninth in the conference in sacks per contest last year and in the pass happy Big 12, they have to do better than that or their secondary will get picked apart. However, the secondary is the strongest part of the defense, but if the Bears fail to get pressure on the opposing quarterback even the experience of corners Tim Atchison and Antareis Bryan and safeties Jordan Lake and Jeremy Williams will not be enough. The good news is that the versatile group of linebackers can help get pressure on the quarterback and occasionally even lend the secondary a hand. Joe Pawelek actually led the team with six interceptions a year ago and Antonio Jones and Earl Patin are both capable pass rushers.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Bears:

What it could all come down to is the play of the offensive line. The Bears lost Jason Smith to the NFL where he was drafted second overall in the 2009 draft. But they also lost Dan Gay who anchored the other side of the line. Senior center J.D. Walton and senior guard James Barnard are a decent group to build around, but it is highly unlikely that Danny Watkins and redshirt freshman Cameron Kaufhold can even come close to replacing Smith and Gay.

Baylor Betting Odds

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