Auburn Tigers 2009 Football Betting Preview

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Auburn 2008 Record: (5-7, 2-6)
Auburn 2008 Bowl: none
Auburn Coach: Gene Chizik (First year at Auburn, 5-19 overall)
Auburn Offensive Coordinator: Gus Malzahn
Auburn Defensive Coordinator: Ted Roof
Auburn Returning Stats Leaders:

• Rushing: Ben Tate, RB, 664 yards
• Passing: Kodi Burns, QB, 1,050 yards
• Receiving: Montez Billings, WR, 277 yards
• Tackles: Zac Etheridge, S, 75
• Sacks: Antonio Coleman, DE, 6.0 sacks
• Interceptions: Josh Bynes, LB, 3

Notable Auburn Returning Players: DE Michael Goggans, Walter McFadden CB, S Mike McNeil, OT Ryan Pugh, LB Craig Stevens, TE Tommy Trott, OT Lee Ziemba

Auburn Key Losses: C Jason Bosley, DT Tez Doolittle, WR Robert Dunn, LB Chris Evans, G Tyronne Green, DT Sen’Derrick Marks, CB Jerraud Powers, WR Rodgeriqus Smith

2008 was so full of drama that ESPN should have run a reality show called ‘As Auburn Turns’. Beginning with former coach Tommy Tuberville’s firing of new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin halfway through the year, things were out of control all year. After a season-ending loss to Alabama, Tuberville was forced out by kingmaking alumnus Bobby Lowder despite winning a share of the SEC West title 5 times in 9 years, posting a 7-3 record against Alabama and finishing the 2004 season 13-0. However, that didn’t end the drama as Auburn hired former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik to take over despite his 5-19 record in two years as Iowa State’s head coach. That brought charges of racism on the university from alumnus Charles Barkley and ESPN broadcast a video of Chizik being booed by a fun upon arrival at the Auburn airport. To say that Chizik will be relieved when the season begins is an understatement. He inherits a veteran team and will be expected to win right away after last season’s bowl-less year.

On offense, Chizik hired spread guru Guz Malzahn as his new offensive coordinator. This could be troublesome initially as Auburn clearly didn’t have the personnel to run the spread last year after a decade of power football. Will that lost year in a similar system help? The starting quarterback is expected to be senior Chris Todd, who was 3-2 last year as the starter before finishing the year sidelined by a shoulder injury. Todd isn’t mobile so junior Kodi Burns should also see the field, especially in the Wildcat formation. The receiving corps isn’t very impressive, though senior tight end Tommy Trott is very athletic and could be the top target. Unfortunately, there isn’t much beside him in terms of experience.

At tailback, senior Ben Tate ran for over 650 yards and 3 touchdowns last fall and will likely be the top ball carrier once more. Junior Mario Fannin is also a solid pass catcher and should see the field plenty. They’ll run behind a decent offensive line that has three junior starters returning. After struggling with pass blocking last fall, I think that their experience in the spread will help in 2009 and I expect improvement. However, I still don’t think that Auburn really has the proper personnel to run an effective spread offense and Malzahn will need some out of nowhere talent if this team is going to be significantly more effective than last year’s unit.

Defensively, eight starters are back from a unit which was the SEC’s 4th best in scoring. Auburn only gave up 18 points per game in 2008, so you know that the blame for their 5-7 season doesn’t lie with the defense. Up front, three starters are back and senior Antonio Coleman was a 1st team All-SEC selection last fall. Despite Coleman’s powerful presence, Auburn struggled against the run, faring their worst in seven seasons! I have to think a more veteran unit guided by Chizik and new coordinator Ted Roof will perform better this fall. The linebackers should also help improve the run defense as two starters are back and both were strong contributors, so expect Auburn to fare better against opposing rushing attacks.

The secondary is the brightest spot on the defense. The only loss was 3rd round draft pick Jerraud Powers at cornerback from a unit which was solid against the pass. With so much experience returning and a renewed emphasis on defense I expect Auburn to field a solid secondary. Simply put, Auburn won’t struggle this fall because of their defense. Their front seven should be strong against the run and Coleman will provide quite the pass rush off the edge. With a solid secondary behind them, I would expect Auburn to once more finish in the top half of the conference in total defense.

The schedule is on the Tigers’ side. Their only BCS conference opponent out of conference is an early visit from rebuilding West Virginia and they have eight total home games. They have three division home games and they avoid Florida in division rotation. The downside is that they have to travel to Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia in conference play, giving them a pretty difficult SEC run.

I was on record lambasting Auburn for firing Tommy Tuberville after last season. It was Tubbs’ first losing season in a decade and he boasted a 7-3 record against Alabama, 5 SEC West Title, two SEC titles and an unbeaten season during his tenure. This was a power play by the school’s most influential alumnus, who was also behind the infamous secret interview with Bobby Petrino while Tuberville was still in charge back in 2003, and I think they’ll eventually regret it. That said, Chizik has put together a strong staff and should recruit well. This fall I have a lot of concerns about the offense because of a serious lack of playmakers and I think that will hurt the Tigers in conference play. However, their non-conference schedule is pretty weak outside of the WVU game and I won’t rule out a bowl game in Chizik’s first season. However, I will be surprised if the Tigers win any more than six games in 2009.

Auburn Big Games: Sept. 19th vs. WVU, Oct. 3rd @ Tennessee, Oct. 10th @ Arkansas, Oct. 24th @ LSU, Nov. 14th @ Georgia, Nov. 27th vs. Alabama

Auburn’s Strength:

The defense might have lost tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, linebacker Chris Evans and cornerback Jerraud Powers, but they are still a quality and experienced unit. The team’s top two tacklers from a year ago, safeties Zac Etheridge and Mike McNeil, are now upperclassmen and will anchor a strong secondary. The linebackers should have little trouble replacing Chris Evans. Josh Bynes, Craig Stevens and Tray Blackmon are all experienced players and there is some depth behind them if necessary. The major losses are on the front line where Marks and Tez Doolittle have to be replaced and the line has to find a way to get more pressure on the quarterback.

Auburn’s Weakness:

The defense will be fine. This is Auburn after all. But the offense is an entirely different story. Kodi Burns is back at the quarterback spot, but his starting job is in jeopardy. Burns proved to be an effective rusher, but he only threw for two touchdowns, while getting picked off seven times. Neil Caudle was a highly touted recruit that never got much of a chance early in his career, but he had a good spring and is a much more effective passer than Burns. Either way, the offense will have to rely on running back Ben Tate while Malzahn’s hurry-up offense is implemented. Mario Fannin could be the difference maker. He can line up just about anywhere and his versatility will make the Auburn offense difficult to prepare for.

Our Prediction for the 2009 Tigers:

If Auburn wants to reach a bowl game this year they have to pick up the offense quickly. And if they do, this could be a very dangerous team by the end of the year. But if the offense is going to be productive they have to find some wide receivers. The fact that Burns only passed for 1,050 yards last year is not entirely his fault as the receiving corps was pretty bad. Somebody has to step up and emerge as a consistent pass catcher or it could be another long year for Auburn and a bad start to the Coach Chizik era.

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