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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Monday, September 12, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Point spread: New England Patriots -7
Over/Under: 45.5
The New England Patriots begin their quest to get back to the Super Bowl this upcoming Monday night when they square-off against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium in this AFC East opening day matchup. The kick-off is slated for 7 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
There was little doubt that new England was the top team in the league last season with a NFL-best 14-2 record, but an early exit in the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a 28-21 loss to the Jets as a 9.5-home favorite only added to its recent frustration in the postseason.
All the pieces are in-place to make another run at a world title with quarterback Tom Brady leading the way. Deion Branch and Wes Welker remain the primary targets in the passing game, but the addition of Chad Ochocinco gives Brady another option down field. The real question for this team is can it improve a defense that was ranked 25th in the NFL overall.
Miami is coming off back-to-back 7-9 seasons after its breakout season in 2008 when it went 11-5 and won the division. The Dolphins actually went 6-2 on the road last season, but a dismal 1-7 straight-up at home.
Defense has not been an issue for this team after finishing 2010 ranked sixth overall and seventh against the run, but an offense that has struggled to find the end zone has been a major one. Miami was only able to average 17.1 points a game last year, which was ranked 30th in the league. Much of the blame for this lack of production has been placed on quarterback Chad Henne. His overall numbers last season were not that bad, with 3,301 yards passing for 15 touchdowns, but his 19 interceptions and lack of consistency from week-to-work cost this team more than a few games over the course of the year.
Head-to-head, the Patriots are 7-3 SU in the last 10 games. Last season, they outscored Miami 79-21 in the two –game series, easily covering the spread in both. The road team is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings and the total has gone ‘over’ in four of the last six games between the two.
The Dolphins are just too outmatched in offensive fire power to hang with New England point-for-point and their over-worked defense will tire easily in the South Florida heat.
The odds makers have the New England Patriots as a -7 point favorite with an over/under of 45.5.
The Pick: New England 34 Miami 13
Need more help making your picks winners? Check out our top handicappers.
New England Patriots Betting Trends:
- New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of New England’s last 11 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games on the road
- New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Miami Dolphins Betting Trends:
- Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- Miami is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
- Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
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