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Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Stadium – Cleveland, Ohio
Sunday September 11, 2011 1:00 on CBS
Spread (ATS): Cincinnati -7
Over/Under: 35
Odds courtesy of BetOnline.com
Cincinnati Bengals
Many see disaster for the Cincinnati Bengals this year but I don’t think it will be “that” bad (relative). This team seems to make nothing but mistakes on and off the field but the drafting of A.J. Green and Andy Dalton will prove to be very good down the road. I still like Marvin Lewis as a coach and this team is full of players with something to prove one way or the other.
Even though I think the Bengals will be better than expected they are going to be a struggle to score points – having your best running back in jail never helps. NFL.com shows Dalton at the top of the depth chart but I am not sure that will be the base on Sunday. Whether it is him or veteran Bruce Gradkowski they should have a heady passer at the controls. As long as they manage the game they should be able to stay in it against most teams.
On defense Cincy has some nice pieces including a couple of pass rushers and some guys who can cover. These two teams split their games last year but the Bengals won the stats in both holding the Browns to below 300 yards in each contest. Cleveland is not very explosive so if they force them to make long drives they are going to be OK.
Cleveland Browns
Lots of change for Cleveland this year beginning with new coach Pat Shurmur. In a division with Baltimore and Pittsburgh it is hard to make headway but with Mike Holmgren at the helm of the organization it seems the moves are getting sharper. Shurmur is expected to improve the offense, mainly by grooming quarterback Colt McCoy into a player that will win games for the Browns. Unfortunately improvement in the form of wins and losses may not be immediately evident.
After leaving Texas everyone knew that Colt McCoy was a winner. The question was whether he had the skills to play in the NFL. After his first season the answer appears to be maybe. This year he is the starter from day one with an offense tailored to his strengths, unfortunately he doesn’t have great weapons to work with – even the great Peyton Hillis wasn’t expected to develop to coverboy status. They really need receiver Greg Little to emerge to keep defenses honest.
The defense is like the offense, mainly devoid of real difference makers. The corners are OK with Joe Haden emerging, and Sheldon Brown, but without a pass-rush their cover skills are only so good. Rookie Jabaal Sheard from Pitt is going to have be a disruptive force from day one for a team that averaged less than 2 sacks per game last year. These teams have a lot in common. That is bad for them respectively but good when they hook up. I am surprised the line is so large right now.
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ATS Pick: Cincinnati +7
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Cleveland 27 – Cincinnati 26
Cincinnati Bengals Betting Trends:
- Cincinnati is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games
- Cincinnati is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
- Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland Browns Betting Trends:
- Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games
- Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
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