Phillies vs Reds | Prediction & Pick – MLB Pick

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Philadelphia Phillies (83-46) vs. Cincinatti Reds (67-66)
Monday August 29 – 7:10 PM (ESPN)

Pitching Probables:   Cole Hamels vs Homer Bailey

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Money Line: Philadelphia Phillies -145, Cincinnati Reds +125
Over/Under: 8

The Philadelphia Phillies have been a scheduling victim of tropical storm Irene and have not played since Friday.  Hopefully the couple of extra days off are being put to good use as the teams has not been itself of late winning only 5 of their last 10 games.  They are still firmly entrenched at the top of the National League though they have had some recent injury concerns.  One of them is starter Cole Hamels who is just returning from the disabled list.  The Phillies brass couldn’t have picked a better spot to activate him as they have never lost a game to the Reds when Hamels has started – a perfect 9-0 – including a game in May.  Normally I would shy away from pitchers making their first start back but that might not be the case tonight.

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You may not have noticed because they have slipped out of the race in the NL Central but the Cincinnati Reds are playing some pretty good ball right now – winning 7 of their last 10.  Homer Bailey has been an important contributor as he seems to finally be in the majors for good.  Unfortunately he has had no luck against Philadelphia in the past  – losing all four of his starts against them.  To be fair no Reds pitcher has had much luck against them of late – the Red are 15-5 against Philadelphia since the beginning of 2009.  Cincinnati enters with a 4 game winning streak so the momentum is on their side.

The odds makers have the Philadelphia Phillies as a -1.5 point favorite with an run total of 8.

Prediction: I don’t think I have bet against the Philles since May.  Lots of compelling history to continue backing them this evening even though Hamels might be a little rusty.  With a couple of days off the pen should be well rested to help him out.

Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies – 6, Cincinnati Reds – 4

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Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games
• Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
• Philadelphia is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games on the road

Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends:

• Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
• Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
• Cincinnati is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Philadelphia