Cleveland Indians 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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Injuries made the challenge even greater for the rebuilding Indians in 2010. If they can stay healthy, they may be able to take a step forward in 2011.

Cleveland Indians 2010 MLB Record: 69-93
Cleveland Indians 2010 MLB Home Record: 38-43
Cleveland Indians 2010 MLB Away Record: 31-50

Cleveland Indians 2011 Betting

Cleveland Indians Odds to Win the American League: +5000
Cleveland Indians Odds to Win the World Series: +10000

Cleveland Indians 2011 Preview & Prediction

Some good news: The Indians arerit likely to finish in fourth place once again. The bad news: This team appears headed for last place in the AL Central one spot below the seemingly always rebuilding Royals. The Indians are too young and have too many questions to be considered anything but a doormat. Center fielder Grady Sizemore and catcher Carlos Santana are coming off serious knee operations. Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, like Sizemore, hasn’t had a healthy season in the last two years, and the Indians are unsettled at second and third base. Pitching, thought to be a weakness last season, turned into a strength, but not on the level of the World Series champion Giants. Fausto Carmona needs to build on his comeback season in 2010 to continue to lead the rotation. In the bullpen, promising closer Chris Perez will be tested over a full season.

Cleveland Indians Manager: Manny Acta – Second year (fifth overall) Record: 227-345

Eternally upbeat and well-liked. Acta has yet to manage a competitive rosters. He believes in high on-base percentage and doesn’t like to give away outs.

Cleveland Indians 2011 Projected Batting Order: LF Michael Brantley (L), SS Asdrubal Cabrera (S), RF Shin-Shoo Choo (L), C Carlos Santana (S), DH Travis Hafner (L), CF Grady Sizemore (L), 1B Matt LaPorta (R), 3B Jayson Nix (R), 2B Jason Donald (S).

Cleveland Indians 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Fausto Carmona, RH Justin Masterson, RH Mitch Talbot, RH Carlos Carrasco, LH David Huff.

Cleveland Indians 2011 Projected Closer: RH Chris Perez

2011 Cleveland Indians Offense:

SS Asdrubal Cabrera is the best bet for a high OBP guy, but doesn’t have prototypical leadoff speed. Acta would love to pencil OF Grady Sizemore into the NO.2 spot, but microfracture knee surgery could sap his speed. OF Shin Soo-Choo is a 100-RBI guy if Cabrera and Sizemore step it up. DH Travis Hafner isn’t the same guy. Best case is 25 homers and less than amonth on the DL. C Carlos Santana is the real deal, amiddle-of-the-order bat who’ll play almost every day since he can handle first base when he’s not catching. 1B Matt Laporta might always be an all-or-nothing guy. 3B Jayson Nix will get a shot to be a regular until prospect Lonnie Chisenhall is ready. If Sizemore isn’t ready, OF Michael Brantley is still asleeper as a high contact hitter with speed. 2B Jason Donald shouldn’t excite fantasy owners. OF Trevor Crowe could pick up at-bats if Sizemore is hurt or Brantley struggles. OFs Austin Kearns and Shelley Duncan are possible platoon partners with Brantley.

2011 Cleveland Indians Rotation:

Fausto Carmona is a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors guy, but he did show slightly improved command and didn’t give up as many hardhit balls last season. He’s a middle-of-the-rotation talent on a team that will give him little support. Justin Masterson is the best pitcher on this staff, a guy who misses bats and gets alot of ground balls. Unfortunately, this is the worst place a groundball guy can be; Cleveland’s infield defense is dreadful, and Masterson’s line will reflect it. Mitch Talbot is really asmoke-and-mirrors guy. How he kept his ERA under five with mediocre control and allowing so much contact in front of this defense makes no sense. Carlos Carrasco has a good amount of upside. He’s 24, throws hard and showed improved command last year. There’s nothing worth monitoring in the battle for the fifth rotation spot. Josh Tomlin, Jeanmar Gomez and Aaron Laffey are fantasy bottom feeders.

2011 Cleveland Indians Bullpen:

The closer’s job belongs to Chris Perez. The rebuilding Indians will have him on along, long leash, but fantasy owners shouldn’t get too giddy about the 25-year-old flamethrower. He has a history of command problems and is susceptible to the longball (he was lucky to only allow four last year). Lefty Tony Sip can be overpowering and he’s effective against lefties and righties. He’d probably get the first call if Perez goes down. Rafael Perez bounced back a little in 2010, but his strikeout rate was way down again. Righties are OPSing .759 and lefties .887 against the southpaw over the past two seasons. Those are mop-up man numbers.

2011 Cleveland Indians Middle Infield:

This is a weak spot. Cabrera is a solid defender and productive hitter if he keeps his weight down and stays off the disabled list, two things he’s been unable to do the last two years. He fractured his left forearm in May and didn’t look like the same player when he returned in July. Jason Donald and Luis Valbuena were the primary starters at second base last year. Donald was the better offensive player, but they both struggled defensively. The Indians signed veteran Orlando Cabrera (no relation) late in the winter as a solution for second. Cabrera is a proven winner and brings leadership to the clubhouse. If his skills haven’t declined too much, he will be a major upgrade. Jayson Nix, who spent much of last season playing out of position at third base, is the most experienced second baseman, but he could be the starter at third. Prospects Jason Kipnis and Cord Phelps will be pushing hard for playing time. Kipnis, a converted center fielder, has a chance to be the Opening Day starter at second. Donald and Valbuena were a disaster at short last year.

2011 Cleveland Indians Corners:

Third and first base might not be as shaky as short and second, but they’re close. The Indians need first baseman Matt LaPorta to become the right-handed run producer that their lineup desperately needs. LaPorta, the key player in the 2008 CC Sabathia trade with Milwaukee, had an on-base percentage of .306 last season. Going into the 2010 season, he was forced to spend most of his time rehabbing from toe and hip surgery. There were no offseason surgeries last winter, so better results are expected. Third base is a mystery. If GM Chris Antonetti doesn’t add a third baseman, Nix and Donald will get first crack at the job. Veteran Jack Hannahan and prospects Phelps and Lonnie Chisenhall are possibilities. Chisenhall is the third baseman of the future, but he’s not ready yet.

2011 Cleveland Indians Outfield:

This has the potential to be the strongest part of the offense, but three things need to go right. Sizemore needs to stay healthy for the first time in two years. He missed most of last season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his left knee, and there is a chance he might not be ready to open the season. Left fielder Michael Brantley needs to continue the improvement he showed on his third trip to the big leagues late last season. And finally, Shin-Soo Choo needs to produce his third straight strong season from right field. Sizemore, Brantley and Choo hit left-handed. Right-handed hitting Austin Kearns was re-signed to a one-year deal to help against lefties. Kearns opened last season with the Tribe before being traded to the Yankees in July. Shelley Duncan, Trevor Crowe and Travis Buck will also be competing for bench jobs in case Sizemore suffers a setback.

2011 Cleveland Indians Catching:

The last hitter to arrive in Cleveland with a louder buzz than Carlos Santana was Manny Ramirez. Manager Manny Acta dropped Santana into the middle of the lineup the moment he arrived from Triple-A Columbus on June 11, and he stayed there until he suffered a season-ending knee injury blocking the plate in Boston on Aug. 2. The switch-hitting Santana did make the Indians more dangerous, but he was in his first prolonged slump when he tore the lateral collateral ligament in his knee at Fenway Park. Santana is ahead of Sizemore in his recovery from surgery, and Acta is determined to keep him in the middle of the lineup. Lou Marson had the best percentage of throwing out basestealers in the AL last season, but if he wants to back up Santana he better hit more than .195. Luke Carlin and Paul Phillips will try to steal the job from him.

2011 Cleveland Indians Bench:

One problem with the roster is that DH Travis Hafner is making $13 million this year and $13 million in 2012. Combine that with a payroll that has been cut dramatically since 2007 and it doesn’t allow much roster flexibility. Hafner had a better second half, but it’s doubtful he’ll ever show his old power. Kearns and Crowe are the extra outfielders; Kearns can provide pop, while Crowe adds speed. Everett, if he makes the team, will play both middle infield spots.

Cleveland Indians 2011 Season Predictions

The Indians have some exciting young players in Carlos Santana and Shin-Sao Choo, and some prospects on the way. But there’s very little depth here, and ownership isn’t spending much money to try to improve the roster. – We predict that the Cleveland Indians will finish 63-99 & 5th in the AL Central Division.

Cleveland Indians 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 4th NL East 78
2007: 1st AL Central 96
2008: 3rd AL Central 81
2009: T-4th AL Central 65
2010: 4th AL Central 69

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