Baltimore Orioles 2011 Preview, Predictions & Odds

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Buck Showalter turned the Orioles into a respectable outfit. But there’s still plenty of work to be done for the O’s to post their first winning record since 1997.

Baltimore Orioles 2010 MLB Record: 66-96
Baltimore Orioles 2010 MLB Home Record: 37-44
Baltimore Orioles 2010 MLB Away Record: 29-52

Baltimore Orioles 2011 Betting

Baltimore Orioles Odds to Win the American League: +3000
Baltimore Orioles Odds to Win the World Series: +8000

Baltimore Orioles 2011 Preview & Prediction

The Orioles never got out of the gate last season, starting out 2-16 and going through three managers., They’ve suffered 13 straight losing seasons, and attendance continues to fall at Camden Yards. However, optimism arrived along with Buck Showalter, who led the team to a 34-23 finish. He brought instant credibility and an injection of energy. Too bad he didn’t bring the Yankees’ and Red Sox’s payrolls. Contending in this division remains an overly optimistic goal. The rotation is young, and the lineup, though improved, still won’t strike fear in the hearts of most pitchers.

Baltimore Orioles Manager: Buck Showalter – Second year Record: 916-856

A tough disciplinarian who demands accountability from his players, Showalter has a history of quick success. He also has a history of wearing out his welcome after only a few years.

Baltimore Orioles 2011 Projected Batting Order: 2B Brian Roberts (S), CF Adam Jones (R), RF Nick Markakis (L), 3B Mark Reynolds (R), Luke Scott (L), 1B Derrek Lee (R), C Matt Wieters (S), SS J.J. Hardy (R), LF Felix Pie (L).

Baltimore Orioles 2011 Projected Rotation: RH Jeremy Guthrie, LH Brian Matusz, RH Brad Bergesen, RH Jake Arrieta, RH Chris Tillman.

Baltimore Orioles 2011 Projected Closer: RH Kevin Gregg

2011 Baltimore Orioles Offense:

After finishing with the fourth-fewest runs in the majors, the Orioles made key upgrades to the offense. 3B Mark Reynolds has averaged 35 homers, 95 RBI and 14 SB (and 213 K) in the past three seasons. SS J.J. Hardy has been slowed by numerous injuries in the past two years, but he did hit 50 HR in 2007-08. The top three in the order are all looking to improve on disappointing seasons. 2B Brian Roberts missed more than 100 games with abdomen and hip injuries, RF Nick Markakis had only 12 HR and 60 RBI in 629 at-bats and CF Adam Jones had 119 K and just 23 BB. DH Luke Scott will bat clean-up and is coming off a .903 OPS season with a career-high 27 homers. 1B Derrek Lee should be motivated after signing a one-year deal. He’s coming off a disappointing 2010 season with the Cubs. C Matt Wieters has not lived up to his mega-hype yet, hitting .249 with just 37 runs in 446 at-bats last year. Often injured LF Felix Pie looks to reach 300 AB for the first time in his career.

2011 Baltimore Orioles Rotation:

The Orioles ranked third-to-last in starters’ ERA last year (4.67), which was actually a big improvement from their 5.37 starters’ ERA in 2009. Brian Matusz is the ace of the staff, showing great improvement throughout his first full season in the majors. The 24-year-old lefty finished the year 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after August 1. Brad Bergesen also closed out the year in style with a 2.85 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his final 12 starts. The 25-year old sinkerballer is susceptible to the long ball when he leaves his pitches up in the zone, serving up 26 homers in 170 innings in 2010. Jeremy Guthrie will be the Opening Day starter after finishing seventh in the American League in WHIP (1.16). He lowered his ERA to 3.83 (from 5.04 in ’09) and allowed 10 fewer homers than he did the previous year. Chris Tillman (22) and Jake Arrieta (25) round out this young rotation. Tillman had 31 K and 31 BB last year, while Arrieta had matching numbers in earned runs and strikeouts (52) as a rookie.

2011 Baltimore Orioles Bullpen:

When we posted this, it was widely reported that Kevin Gregg would sign a fat two-year deal to become Baltimore’s closer. But until that becomes official, Koji Uehara will pitch the ninth inning for the O’s. Uehara had 55 K and just five walks last year and converted 13 of his 15 save opportunities. He doesn’t have the overpowering fastball most closers possess, but he has pinpoint control and is not easily rattled. Mike Gonzalez, who has 55 career saves, was signed before the 2010 season to be the closer, but a shoulder injury forced him to miss half the season. Jim Johnson also missed half the season (elbow) after pitching 118 games in 2008-09. The O’s will try to revive the career of former Blue Jays’ closer Jeremy Accardo. He hasn’t been healthy since 2007.

2011 Baltimore Orioles Middle Infield:

The offense tends to shut down without leadoff hitter Brian Roberts, and he dealt with a multitude of health issues last year, including a herniated disk in his back and an abdominal strain. He’s above average defensively and a doubles and stolen-base machine when healthy. He reached base in 25 straight games Aug. 16 to Sept. 15. The Orioles traded for J.J. Hardy to provide more offense at shortstop. He’s also been a health riddle, but he hit 26 homers in 2007 and 24 in 2008. The Orioles re-signed Cesar Izturis to back up at both positions.

2011 Baltimore Orioles Corners:

Once the Orioles determined Josh Bell needed more at-bats at Triple-A, they traded for Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds. He’s hit 28, 44 and 32 homers the last three seasons, and the Orioles need someone in the middle of the order who scares opposing pitchers. Speaking of scary: He hit .198 last year and has struck out 200-plus times the last three seasons. It can be all or nothing with him. The Orioles like the defense Reynolds brings. First base was a winter priority, but the big guns didn’t come to Baltimore. Rather than move Luke Scott to first and fret over his defense, the Orioles signed veteran Derrek Lee to a one-year deal. Lee’s power dropped in 2010, but he underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. He’s an upgrade, even at age 35.

2011 Baltimore Orioles Outfield:

Showalter keeps raving about the defense he gets from all three spots, saying this outfield rivals any other baseball has to offer. He loves the arms attached to right fielder Nick Markakis, center fielder Adam Jones — a 2009 Gold Glove winner — and fragile left fielder Felix Pie. Markakis’ power numbers were down last year, largely because he gets so little protection in the lineup, but his 45 doubles were tied for fourth in the league. Jones matched his career high with 19 homers and projects as an eventual middle-of-the-order hitter. He’s still learning. Pie and Nolan Reimold could share left field with Scott. Pie is a dynamic player who lacks instincts and durability. Reimold had a promising rookie season but spent most of 2010 in the minors. He’s finally recovered from Achilles surgery and has been working out with former Oriole Brady Anderson. He’s got 20-plus homer potential. Scott has been a regular since arriving in Baltimore in 2008, but mostly at DH. He’s averaged 25 homers and 71 RBIs, so it won’t be easy to keep him out of the lineup.

2011 Baltimore Orioles Catching:

Former first-round pick Matt Wieters didn’t look like a phenom last year, but he’s still “The Man” behind the mask. He drew considerable praise late in the year for his throwing and handling of the pitching staff. For the year, he cut down 31 percent of runners attempting to steal, including four of the last seven. Wieters went 30 games without a home run and finished with only 11. Not quite the power that was advertised. Craig Tatum served as the backup last year, and the Orioles were 17–17 in his starts. But he didn’t throw out any of the 21 runners attempting to steal after May 13.

2011 Baltimore Orioles Bench:

After experiencing a soft market for DHs, Vlad Guerrero signed with the Orioles late in the offseason. The former AL MVP rebounded last season after a subpar 2009. For the AL champion Rangers, Guerrero hit .300-29-115. He’ll be expected to produce similar numbers in Baltimore, becoming a key component in the middle of the order. There’s not a whole lot of pop among the reserves. Izturis is the backup middle infielder after starting at shortstop the past two seasons. He can still flash the leather, but the Orioles couldn’t hide his weak bat at the bottom of the lineup. Brendan Harris accompanied Hardy to the Orioles in the trade with the Twins that unfolded at the winter meetings. Harris can play all the infield spots and handle outfield duty if necessary. He’s well traveled but versatile. He needs to beat out Robert Andino to make the club. Jake Fox, obtained in a June trade with the Athletics, batted .220 with five homers in 38 games. He can play the infield corners and catch, and he also could be a spare outfielder. Tatum, assuming he makes the club, will be the fourth reserve.

Baltimore Orioles 2011 Season Predictions

There’s no discounting what Buck Showalter accomplished after taking over last summer. But the Orioles are in a tough spot, trying to take significant steps forward in baseball’s toughest division. They’re on the right track, but they’ve still got a ways to go. – We predict that the Baltimore Orioles will finish 70-92 & 5th in the AL East Division.

Baltimore Orioles 5-Year Win Trend

2006: 4th AL East 70
2007: 4th AL East 69
2008: 5th AL East 68
2009: 5th AL East 64
2010: 5th AL East 66

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