NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Wednesday, March 12, 2011
Win or go home scenario for both Baylor and Oklahoma in Big 12 Opening Round
The final Big 12 men’s basketball championship tournament gets underway on Wednesday at Sprint Arena in Kansas City, Missouri. Two teams wanting to finish strong before the league condenses to ten clubs next season are the seventh seeded Baylor Bears and the tenth seeded Oklahoma Sooners.
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Oklahoma (13-17, 5-11 Big 12) at Baylor (18-12, 7-9 Big 12)
Date/Time: Wednesday, March 9, 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Sprint Arena in Kansas City, MO.
Broadcast: ESPN3
Money Line: Oklahoma +260 / Baylor -320
Spread: Baylor -7 ½
Over/Under: 130 ½
This is third of four games being played on the opening day of the tournament, with the winner of this game advancing to Thursday’s quarterfinal meeting with Texas.
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It’s been a solid season for the bears, but one that still leaves their fans wondering what might have been. They were in position to secure a first round bye in this tournament, and were thought of as a team likely to play in the NCAA Tournament. But the Bears have struggled down the stretch of the season, losing four of their last five games. With an RPI of 84 beginning this week, the Bears will likely need to win this tournament outright to gain a spot in the big dance next week.
What has to leave their fans scratching their collective heads the most were the losses during that stretch to both Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Some will point to their loss in Norman to the Sooners on February 2 as the start of this downward trend.
The Bears are led offensively by senior guard LaceDarius Dunn. On Saturday, he became the all-time leading scorer in Big 12 Conference history. For the season, he led the league averaging 19.8 points per game. Dunn scored 22 in the loss to Texas on Saturday in Waco. His backcourt mate, A.J. Walton, finished second in the conference in assists at 4.8 per contest.
That early February victory by the Sooners made them 12-9, and gave them hopes of being a part of post-season play beyond the conference tournament. But eight straight defeats means the only hope for the Sooners is to run the table this week and capture the automatic bid for winning the conference tournament. They salvaged some respect by winning the season finale on Saturday against in-state rival Oklahoma State. Cade Davis, who led Oklahoma in scoring this year at 13.8 PPG, poured in a game-best 22 points in the win against the Cowboys. But Davis was held to just five points in the last game against the Bears, something the Sooners won’t be able to overcome again.
The odds makers have the Baylor Bears as a -7.5 point favorite with an over/under of 130.5.
Baylor is a strong contender for selection into the NIT, and a solid victory over Oklahoma should solidify that argument.
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Baylor Bears Betting Trends:
- Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
- Baylor is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baylor’s last 5 games
- Baylor is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Oklahoma
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