NBA Free Pick – Friday March 4, 2011
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Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs (50-11)
Friday, March 4, 2011 at 9:30 pm EST on ESPN
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Last meeting: These teams have yet to meet this season but will be playing each other twice in the next two weeks.
No team is under more scrutiny this season than the Miami Heat and it might have just cranked up a notch after last night’s ugly loss. Early on it looked like they were going to make a statement in stomping the Orlando Magic but the Heat crumbled in the second half to lose by three on their home floor. The amazing thing was how their offense completely evaporated in the second half. Orlando is a very good defensive team but scoring only 33 points in a half is downright shocking given the players for Miami. If the Heat really are a championship contender than they should rebound quickly, but doing so on the road against the team with the best record in the league will be very tough. In my opinion the opponent and the environment for this one might actually make it is easier as this team led by LeBron loves the spotlight and will be forced to not phone it in. The Heat are 12-3 with 0 days rest but are just 7-8 ATS.
They have had a couple of head scratching losses of late but the San Antonio Spurs still possess the league’s best record. This could be a NBA Finals preview so this Friday nighter on ESPN should definitely get both team’s attention and have a bit of a playoff feel. The Spurs have the advantage of being at home and some extra rest after beating Cleveland earlier in the week. San Antonio has been just lights out at home with a 28-2 record. They have been favoured in everyone one of those games but despite almost never losing they have been a poor bet at just a game over .500 ATS. For what it is worth backing the Spurs on one day rest has been a winning proposition at 19-13-2 ATS. These old guys know how to manage themselves and actually are a worse bet when they have more time off.
The current line on this one is San Antonio -2.5. Like the early game I say grab the points and enjoy the upset.
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Prediction: The Heat may have no rest for this one but I like them to be the victors, even on the road. They are the younger and hungrier team and I think that will show.
Score: Miami 102 – San Antonio 97
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Miami Heat Betting Trends
- Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
- Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. Western Conference.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends
- Spurs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Spurs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
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