NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Thursday, March 3, 2011
Wisconsin looks to secure NCAA tourney bid against Indiana
The Badgers of Wisconsin look to finish the season strong when they visit the Indiana Hoosiers at Assembly Hall in Big Ten action on Thursday.
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#10 Wisconsin (22-6, 12-4 Big Ten) at Indiana (12-17 3-13 Big Ten)
Date/Time: Thursday, March 3, 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Assembly Hall in Bloomington, IN.
Broadcast: ESPN
Money Line: Wisconsin -270 / Indiana +230
Spread: Wisconsin -6
Over/Under: 129
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Wisconsin enters the contest with an RPI of 12 and seems a lock for selection into the NCAA Tournament later this month. There is still a scenario in which they Badgers can finish in a three-way tie for the Big Ten regular season crown, but they must win this game Thursday at Indiana and then Saturday at Ohio State plus get help.
The Badgers are second to Stephen F. Austin in fewest points allowed per game, with opponents scoring just 57.6 points per contest. In their six losses overall this season, Wisconsin has lost by single digits in each of them, meaning they are in every game they’ve played this season. They’ve held opponents under 60 points in four of their last five road games.
Wisconsin does have some offensive talent as well. Bo Ryan’s club has three players averaging in double figures in scoring. Jon Leuer leads the way scoring 19.3 points per game, shooting 48.5 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from three-point range. Jordan Taylor is second on the Badgers at 17.8 points per contest, and leads the men from Madison in assists at five per game. Keaton Nankivil averages just over 10 points per game and is shooting 51.2 percent from the floor, including 47.6 percent from downtown.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are simply playing out the string in a forgetful season. Folks in Bloomington are paraphrasing the Simon & Garfunkel hit Mrs. Robinson by asking, “Where have you gone Robert Montgomery Knight?” The last time the Hoosiers suffered through three consecutive losing seasons, which this season will include, was back in 1967-68 through 1969-70 when Knight was still at Army.
The current Hoosiers will play their last home game at Assembly Hall of the season. Only one senior, reserve guard Jeremiah Rivers, will play his last game at home in his career on Thursday. Indiana is led in scoring by sophomore forward Christian Watford. The Birmingham native is at 16.5 points per game this season.
The odds makers have the Wisconsin as a -6 point favorite with an over/under of 129.
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Matt’s Free Pick: In handicapping this matchup, my play is Wisconsin to earn a victory over a game IU squad.
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Wisconsin Badgers Betting Trends:
- Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin’s last 5 games on the road
- Wisconsin is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Trends:
- Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
- Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana’s last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana’s last 5 games at home
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