NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Saturday, February 19, 2011
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#24 Utah State (24-3, 12-1 WAC) at #23 Saint Mary’s (22-5, 10-2 WCC)
Date/Time: Saturday, February 19, 2011, 9:00PM EST
Venue: McKeon Pavilion in Moraga, CA
Broadcast: ESPN2
Spread: St.Mary’s – 3 ½
Over/Under: 137
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Utah State will try to erase what happened the last two times they have met up with non-conference rival Saint Mary’s when the two square off on Saturday night in Northern California.
The twenty-fourth-ranked Aggies will hope to avenge those last two defeats against a Gaels squad that is buzzing through their division having won 19 consecutive home games, and are 42-3 in Moraga since the 2008-09 season. This includes a 75-64 win over Utah State in 2009.
However, the Gaels were recently derailed by a 74-66 loss at San Diego on Feb. 16, a game that St. Mary’s was supposed to win. But after playing well to start the game, building up a 32-24 lead at the half, the Gaels stumbled in the second half, as San Diego was just too much, and the game got away from them.
San Diego drained a barrage of three pointers for 24 insurmountable points, while Saint Mary’s really struggled was three-point shooting with only 13 percent for the game against a season average of 38. Mitchell Young led the losing effort for the Gaels with 24 points while Mickey McConnell contributed a game-leading four steals. In a personal highlight, Young blew away his season average of 10.3 points per game.
Despite the loss, Saint Mary’s remains on top the WCC, three games ahead of Gonzaga.
Meanwhile, Utah State presides over the Western Athletic Conference, having only lost once in their last 20, and had little trouble in their last game, routing NAIA school Montana Western 100-66 on Wednesday. Tai Wesley had 20 points to lead the charge.
Wesley, who averages a team-best 14.3 points, scored 12 against the Gaels last season, and had seven points and seven rebounds against them two years ago. But adding another victory to this run won’t be easy.
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Saint Mary’s was the last team to beat Utah State on its home floor, ending the Aggies’ 37-game home winning streak and will be even more challenged to win one from the Gaels at home.
The Aggies, ninth in the nation in scoring defense at 58.4 points, will need to be prepared for the Gaels’ high-powered offense that is 12th in scoring at 80.3 points and is led by senior guard Mickey McConnell who is averaging 23.7 points in his last seven games, 6.8 better than his team-leading average.
The odds makers have the Saint Mary’s Gaels as a -3.5 point favorite with an over/under of 137.
Matt’s Free Pick: Saint Mary –Given the Gaels 13-0 home record and the Aggies history against St. Mary’s, I expect the win to go to the home team straight up. However, the Aggies defense could allow some bettors to back Utah State, taking the points and possibly a few bucks away from this one.
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