NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Wednesday, February 9, 2011
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#21 North Carolina (17-5, 7-1 ACC) at #5 Duke (21-2, 8-1 ACC)
Date/Time: Wednesday, February 9, 2011, 9:00 PM EST
Venue: Cameron Indoor Stadium, in Durham, NC.
Broadcast: ESPN
Money Line: North Carolina +450 / Duke -600
Spread: Duke -10
Over/Under: 156
Considered one of the best rivalries in college basketball, this year’s matchup between the 2010 national champion Duke Blue Devils and the resurrected North Carolina Tar Heels should have Cameron Indoor Stadium buzzing come Wednesday night.
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With first place in the ACC on the line, this should prove to be the game of the week.
The Blue Devils captured the ACC regular-season crown, tournament title and national championship last season, while the Tar Heels finished tied for the league’s second-worst record. Duke swept the two-game season series after losing both meetings in 2008-09, when North Carolina won the NCAA tournament.
Duke is on fire after losing to St John’s for just its second loss of the season, stringing together two wins including a 76-52 thumping of NC State, in conference action their last time out.
The game was all Duke from the beginning, going into halftime leading 53-24. The game came down to a big separation between Duke and NC State in offensive rebounding and three pointers. Duke crushed threes, hitting a total of 21 points from beyond the arc while Nolan Smith led the Blue Devils with 20 points.
Smith is averaging league highs of 21.0 points and 5.6 assists and is on pace to become the first player in ACC history to lead the conference in both categories. He is gets a ton of support in the form of Kyle Singler who is third in the league with an average of 18.0 points, and has reached double figures in scoring in an ACC-best 21 straight games.
Meanwhile the Tar Heels haven’t looked too bad either, winning seven of eight ACC bouts including a shelling of the Seminoles 89-69 in their last contest. Freshman Harrison Barnes led the way with 17 points, while Tyler Zeller and John Hanson each scored 16 for North Carolina, which is averaging 93.0 points on 53.3 percent shooting in its last three games.
The Heels will now make the trip to Durham where Duke has won 32 in a row, riding a five-game winning streak, while boasting one of the league’s best defenses.
The Blue Devils got the best of the Tar Heels last year, winning by an average margin of 21. Over four years, Duke has gone 3-5 against North Carolina, including 1-3 at home.
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The odds makers have the Duke Blue Devils as a -10 point favorite with an over/under of 156.
Matt’s Free Pick: Duke -These are two of the top offenses in the ACC with the Devils leading the conference with 84.7 points per game, which is 5.6 better than the Heels. The Heels have fared well on the road, going 4-2 overall. However, the atmosphere is more than intimidating at Cameron Indoor and the Cameron Crazies should make the Heels trip hell.
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North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Trends:
- North Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of North Carolina’s last 16 games on the road
- North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Duke
- North Carolina is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Duke
Duke Blue Devils Betting Trends:
- Duke is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
- Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
- Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Duke is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing North Carolina
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