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#21 Illinois (14-6, 4-3 Big Ten) at Indiana (10-10, 1-6 Big Ten)
Thursday, January 27, 2011 at 9:00 PM EST on Big Ten Network
Money Line: Illinois -190 / Indiana +165
Spread: Illinois -4.5
Over/Under: 143
The No. 20 Fighting Illini look to avoid a third straight road loss when attempt to win their fifth in a row over Big Ten rival Indiana on Thursday night.
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Last season Illinois went 2-0 against the Hoosiers, with an average four-point margin of victory. Over four years, Illinois has gone 6-3 against their conference foe and 2-2 at Assembly Hall.
The Fighting Illini are coming off a 73-68 loss at home to No. 1 Ohio State their last time out, a game in which they were outscored 14-0 during a 5:09 stretch after leading by eight early on in the second half. Illinois have not been very good holding leads as of late, often playing too conservative when they are ahead.
Freshman swingman Jereme Richmond’s double-double of 18 points and 10 rebounds was not enough to lift the Illini, while center Mike Tisdale scored 15 points, but committed a late turnover that helped seal the Illini’s fate. Leading-scorer, Demetri McCamey who is averaging team highs of 15.6 points and 7.1 assists, was two for 11 from the field and scored a season-low five points against the Buckeyes. The senior point guard has just shot 27.9 percent during the last four games.
Likewise, Indiana is struggling and has landed in 9th place in the Big Ten with a 1-6 record in the conference.
The mighty Hoosiers will attempt to repair the hole in its sinking ship after dropping its second in a row following a 91-77 thumping at Iowa on Sunday. It won’t be easy as they will be without two of their starting guards–second-leading scorer Verdell Jones III, who is out indefinitely with inflammation in his right knee, and sophomore guard Maurice Creek, who suffered a stress fracture in his right patella Jan. 15.
Jones’ leadership on the court will be sorely missed against Illinois, a team he averaged 17.5 points and 4.5 assists in two losses last season. Having Jones out of the line up increases the pressure on leading-scorer Christian Watford, who had a career-high 30 points Sunday.
Barring an off performance, Illinois should be able to win this game. Illinois holds the edge on both offense and defense. However, as we’ve seen in plenty of other games this season, there is always plenty of margin for error for the upset, and Indiana has the weapons to pull it off.
Standing in at 6-foot-8, Watford will be a tough test for the Illini’s big men.
The key here will be McCamey, who has had several big games against Indiana. He scored a career-high 31 in an 83-79 double-overtime loss to the Hoosiers back on Feb. 7, 2008, and had 19 points and nine assists off the bench, as Illinois overcame a 15-point deficit to win 66-60 in Bloomington on Jan. 9, 2010. I look for the ball hawk to rebound with a surging performance on Thursday night.
The odds makers have the Illinois Fighting Illini as a -4.5 point favorite with an over/under of 143.
Matt’s Free Pick: Illinois 78, Indiana 66
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Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Illinois’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Trends:
- Indiana is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
- Indiana is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana’s last 6 games
- Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
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