NBA Free Pick – Wednesday January 26, 2011
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San Antonio (38-7) vs Utah (27-18)
Wednesday, January 26, 2011 at 9:30 pm EST on ESPN
Last meeting: San Antonio won 94-82 at home in November.
It was ugly for the Spurs in New Orleans where they lost by 24 points to the Hornets as 1.5 point favourites. They rebounded to outscore Warriors earlier this week but the Spurs will have the stiffest test of their current road trip tonight against Utah. They handled the Jazz easily at home earlier in the season but Utah is a much more confident team at home. San Antonio is enjoying another great run, 9-1 SU in their last 10 but they have been only so-so against the spread (5-4-1 ATS). As they have been challenging the old Bulls for the best season record in history they have also been making money for handicappers who identified that this Spurs squad is a little bit different (more high scoring) from those in the past. At 26-17-2 they have been a pretty good bet too, but they are killing us on overs (20-24 Unders)
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The Utah Jazz are enjoying the worst stretch I can remember for them. This franchise is not often elite but it is rare that they are as bad as they have been lately, losing 5 in a row on the road including a recent beatdown by the Lakers where they almost lost by 30. They return home to find the team with the league`s best record visiting – not exactly an easy way to break out of their current ineptitude. One common thread of their recent bad run is that they are not scoring the ball. The Jazz are 12th best scoring team in the league averaging 99ppg but in their last 4 losses they haven`t score more than 95 points. It is hard to identify the problem behind their scoring woes but either way it is going to be hard to upset the Spurs tonight without a strong offensive performance.
The current line on this one is Spurs -3. Betting against the Jazz at home usually isn`t the safest best but I think there is great value with the Spurs tonight.
Prediction: The Jazz will put forth a strong effort after a miserable road trip but eventually they will run out of steam and lose.
Score: San Antonio 99 – Utah 92
San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends
- Spurs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Spurs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
- Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
- Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Utah Jazz Betting Trends
- Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.
- Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days
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