NCAA Basketball Free Pick – Tuesday, January 18, 2011
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#18 Michigan State (12-5, 4-1 Big Ten) at #22 Illinois (13-5, 3-2 Big Ten)
Tuesday, January 18, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Spread: Illinois -4
Over/Under: OFF
Two ranked Big Ten rivals will do battle as the Fighting Illini host the surging Michigan State Spartans on Tuesday night.
Illinois has dropped its last two games straight and are coming off a 76-66 loss at Wisconsin on Saturday.
The Illini leads the Big Ten in 3-point shooting at 42.5 percent, but hit only 30.2 percent in the loss to the Badgers. Demitri McCamey scored 23 points while sophomore guard D.J. Richardson, who was averaging 10.4 points per game, has just three points in the past two games combined.
With Saturday’s loss, Illinois is now 0-2 against teams ranked in the top 25 and seem to be losing steam as the move deeper into conference play.
Offensively Illinois is averaging 75.4 points per game shooting very good 47.9 percent from the floor while snatching an amazing 35.6 offensive rebounds per game. McCamey is averaging 16.2 points and 7.0 assists, while Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale are not far behind with 10 plus points and around 6.5 boards per outing. Defensively Illinois is allowing 65.7 points per game as the opposition shoots 40 percent against them, with the exception of Wisconsin who was able to crack the Illinois defense.
Meanwhile, Michigan State lost by four at Penn State, but since has battled back with two overtime wins in which they rallied from behind. Offensively the Spartans are averaging 73.1 points per game and shooting 44.8 percent from the floor while being one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Leading scorer Kalin Lucas is averaging 14.7 points per game, with Durrell Summers averaging 14.2 points, and Draymond Green with 8.9 rebounds per game. Defensively, Michigan State is holding the opposition to just 65.6 points per game and giving up no more than 39.6 percent from the floor.
The Spartans will need a little of that magic against Illinois, which is 9-0 at Assembly Hall. The Spartans shot 64.3 percent from the foul line and committed 18 turnovers in last season’s 78-73 loss to the Illini in Champaign.
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MSU seems to have rediscovered their groove committing only five turnovers in the second half and overtime while draining 24 of 28 free throws in their win over Northwestern their last time out.
This should be a good one and look for both teams to be very efficient as they move the ball to the basket. Illinois has won five of seven at home against Michigan State, but I don’t expect the hotter Spartans to help them extend that streak in this one.
Free Pick: Michigan State 79, Illinois 75
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Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends:
- Michigan State is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Illinois
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Michigan State’s last 9 games when playing on the road against Illinois
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Trends:
- Illinois is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois’s last 5 games
- Illinois is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
- Illinois is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Michigan State
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