Beef O Brady’s Bowl | Predictions & Pick

Beef o’ Brady’s Bowl

vs.

Southern Mississippi (8-4) vs Louisville (6-6)
Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, Florida
Saturday, December 18, 2010 at 8:00 pm on ESPN

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When Southern Miss was stomped in the opener by South Carolina it looked like another mediocre 7-6 season was in store for the Golden Eagles.  After that game it took a while for Southern Miss to gather steam but eventually their offense caught fire.  In their last 8 games only once did they score less than 41 points (31 against UCF which is very impressive) and that was without any real contribution from mammoth WR DeAndre Brown who has been hampered by injuries all season.  He should be healthy and pose serious problems for Louisville but even if he is not this team knows that they can get it with junior QB Austin Davis at the controls.  Louisville is carving out an identify as a defense first team and the Eagles will put that to the test.

New Louisville coach Charlie Strong sure is getting a lot of mileage out of a .500 first season.  Many are touting a coaching job that when you look more closely includes just two wins against teams with winning records.  My how the Cardinals fell in the dreaded Kragthorpe era.  I will admit that their win over Big East Champ UConn 26-0 was impressive but other than the emergence of senior RB Bilal Powell this team has little else to show.  This is a much more effective defense that is stingy with yards and points but lets face it Kragthorpe and Petrino before him never gave that side of the ball much thought.  The Big East was down this year and has no juggernaut offense to test Louisville.  Southern Miss will challenge them.
The Golden Eagles and the Cardinals have some recent history.  These two teams met in the regular season last year with Louisville escaping with a 2 point home victory.  In this bowl matchup where the sponsor seems to change every year there is also a history of the Big East blowing out conference USA.  I don’t think that will be the base this year.  The Cardinal defense will be tested and if they can’t get Powell going on the ground Southern Miss could flip the script and blow out Louisville.

Game Prediction: I think this game will be a bit of a chess match in the beginning as an offensive and defensive coach feel each other out.  Southern Miss should be able score either exploiting Brown or the attention he commands.  They will jump out to a lead but Louisville won’t let them run way.

The spread is -3 for Louisville…I love Southern Miss as the underdog.

Score Prediction:

Southern Mississipi – 38
Louisville – 31

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Southern Miss Golden Eagles Betting Trends:

• Southern Miss is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Southern Miss’s last 8 games
• Southern Miss is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisville
• Southern Miss is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisville

Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville’s last 6 games
• Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Southern Miss