NCAA Football Free Pick – Saturday, November 27, 2010
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Michigan @ #8 Ohio State – 12:00 PM ET on ABC
The Buckeyes have won an amazing six in a row against Michigan going 5-1 ATS in the process. The Wolverines are much improved this year as Denard Robinson has proved to be one of the most exciting players in college football. I am sure he will get loose a few times on Saturday but I don’t think it will be enough to swing the game Michigan’s way. The opening line is OSU -17.5, only once in the past 10 years has it been bigger, when Ohio State thumped the Wolverines 42-7 two years ago. Given the high probability of a three way tie for the conference lead OSU has to put forth a dominant effort to leap frog a Badger team which beat them earlier in the year. I think Michigan will lose but their performance might be just enough of a thorn to keep the buckeyes from the promised land of Pasadena.
Prediction: Ohio State 45 – Michigan 35 – Bet Now
Odds: Ohio State: -16.5 – Michigan: +16.5 – Over/Under: 63.5
Team records:
- Michigan: 7-4 SU, 3-7 ATS
- Ohio State: 10-1 SU, 8-2-1 ATS
Michigan Wolverines most recently:
- When playing in November are 3-7
- When playing on turf are 5-5
- After being outgained are 3-7
- When playing within the conference are 3-7
Ohio State Buckeyes most recently:
- When playing in November are 9-1
- When playing on turf are 9-1
- After outgaining opponent are 9-1
- When playing within the conference are 9-1
A few betting trends to consider:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan’s last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan’s last 7 games when playing Ohio State
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Michigan’s last 16 games on the road
- Michigan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
- Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan
- Ohio State is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ohio State’s last 9 games at home
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