Top 3 NFL Pointspread Plays- Week 11
Last week nine home teams won their game straight-up, but only six came out on top against the spread. Five road teams won straight-up and eight road teams won ATS.
Nine dogs managed to win their games with six teams winning their game outright. Three home dogs covered; Chicago, Miami, and Denver and six road dogs; Detroit, Cincinnati, Dallas, St. Louis, Seattle, and New England covered as well.
Turning to Week 11 there are only three home teams getting points out of 16 total games. The largest spread has New Orleans at home giving 12 points to Seattle. The smallest spread has Jacksonville as a one-point home favorite over Cleveland.
Here is a look at my top three ‘pointspread’ plays for the NFL’s Week 11. All lines quoted are courtesy of BetUs.com.
Detroit @ Dallas (-7)
Detroit is 2-7 overall but its seven losses this season have been by an average of just 5.3 points. Even with QB Matthew Stafford missing most of the season with shoulder injuries, the Lions have the seventh ranked passing offense in the league.
Dallas has a turnover ratio of -7 which is fifth worst in the league. The Cowboy’s defense is ranked 28th in points allowed; giving up an average of 28 points per game while their offense is only averaging 21.6 points.
The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Pick: Detroit +7
Arizona @ Kansas City (-7 ½)
Arizona is 1-4 straight-up on the road this season and has been outscored 131-51 in those four losses. The Cardinals’ offense is ranked 31st overall and is averaging just 19.4 points per game. Their defense is ranked 30thand giving up an average of 29 points per game.
Kansas City is 4-0 SU at home this season and has outscored its opponents 107-54 in those four wins. The Chiefs offense is averaging 23.6 points per game and is ranked 10th overall. Their defense is giving up an average of 21.6 points per game.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on grass and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss. The Pick: Kansas City -7 ½
Atlanta (-3) @ St. Louis
Atlanta is tied for the best record in the league at 7-2 and its offense is ranked eighth in the league in scoring; averaging 24.7 points per game, however it only averaged 13 points per game in those two road losses. The Falcons’ defense is ranked 17th overall, but 23rd against the pass; giving up an average of 245.3 yards per game.
St. Louis is 4-5 overall but 4-1 SU at home this season and has outscored their opponents by an average of 11 points per game in those four wins. Rookie QB Sam Bradford has thrown for 1,925 yards and 12 touchdowns and is completing 60.2 percent of his throws.
The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against St. Louis. The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games between these two teams. The Pick: St. Louis +3
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